'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea !
Posted: 11. April 2013 (co 9-4)  
First Addendum, 13/15 Apr. 2013: Is the North Sea Stupid? (Fig.15ff)

ITV/UK  (10 Apr.2013) reports:

___The Met Office is calling a meeting of top scientists to look at the "urgent" question of whether the warming of the Arctic is affecting UK weather.

New Met Office figures out today show that Tuesday 2nd April 2013 was the coldest night since 1917 and, in some areas of the south east, Thursday 4th April 2013 was provisionally the coldest April day since the 1960s.

Scientists want to investigate whether there is a link between these temperatures and the lowest ever Arctic ice levels, which were recorded a few months ago.

"If this is how climate change could manifest itself, then we need to understand that as a matter of urgency," Julia Slingo, the Met Office's chief scientist, told ITV News.

 Another report by ITV/UK (10 Apr. 2013) titled: “Met Office investigating Arctic link to record low temperatures in UK ” outlines:

__After some of the coldest temperatures in almost 100 years, the Met Office says it is "urgent" that we address the causes of our changing weather and the possibility that recent record melts in the Arctic are to blame.

The forecaster's top scientist, Dr Julia Slingo, has told ITV News that she will convene a meeting of top experts from around the world to look into this.

New figures out today show the temperature dropped to -11.2C in Aberdeenshire on April 2 - the lowest April temperature recorded nationally for almost a century. It follows the coldest March since 1962.

Some scientists believe that rapid warming in the Arctic, which saw sea ice shrink to its lowest ever level last September, could be influencing our weather in the UK .  

See also:  
____Daily Mail  „MAIL online“, 11 April 2013, “Is the UK heading for ANOTHER Arctic winter? Met Office calls emergency meeting to discuss if melting ice is causing Britain to freeze” HERE  
____HE SUN, April 11, 2013,  : “Land of hope and igloo-ry - Britain faces polar winters.”  HERE  
____WUWT Blog, April 12, 2013: “English Winters Back To Normal – Julia Blames Global Warming!” Posted by Paul Homewood →→ HERE

 In a recent post [03 April 2013 (ocl_9-9)] the claim that the cold March 2013 has its main origin in Siberia, or elsewhere, was rejected, but attention drawn to the sub-cold condition in the North and southern Baltic Sea . The consideration is based on a number of air and sea temperature maps since February. An excerpt from the “First Addendum” (08. Apr.2013) reads as follows:

____Unfortunately, nobody says anything about the reason, although it is very obvious that the southern Baltic and North Sea are far too cold for the season (Fig. 30-32), and any claim that tis is caused by cold air from Siberia, is unfounded (Fig. 33-34). Actually, while the NE Baltic is already in a warming up trend, HERE – 4^th Add. 05 April, at the EMS-Station in the North Sea the temperature reached a seasonal minimum on the 5^th April HERE.
____More important then the mere recording is the question what pushed and kept the regional seas to such low sea water temperatures. Human activities have a good chance to turn out as a substantial contributor. It is a big shame that science no nothing about it, and even seems incapable to see the need to investigate and to understand. The temperature maps Fig. 15 & Fig. 33 show clearly that the cold air conditions in Northern Europe are closely related to the very cold water temperatures.

Fig. 2, 11. April 2013 - SST   Further SST-Maps below; Fig. 15ff	Fig. 3, 11. April 2013 - SST Anomalies   Further Anomaly-Maps below; Fig. 16ff

The situation has not changed. The North Sea is much colder then averages (Fig. 2 & 3) while neither the SST in the Eastern Baltic, nor N-Europe air temperature supports any claim that the cold is coming from the Arctic or Siberia Fig. 4-6), and the sea ice in the eastern Baltic is retreating (Fig. 7-9). 

Fig. 4; T°C North Sea	Fig. 5. T°C Scandinavia	Fig. 6, Forecast T°C until 18. April 2013

 

Fig. 7, Ice-cover on 8 March 2013	Fig. 8, Average ice –cover on 11th April	Fig. 9, Ice-Chart  No.139on 10. April 2013

Instead of looking at what is happening just off their coast line in the North Sea and English Channel , and what may cause the MetOffice declares a case of URGENTCY. When will they understand that the sea is the first to give a correct answer, why the UK faces a cold?  

The Baltic is warming since about 1st April 2013; See: Fourth Addendum http://climate-ocean.com/2013/10_2.html The daily rise and decrease are indicated.	Fig. 10, Göteborg	Fig. 11, Station map
Fig. 12, Kungsholmsfort	Fig.13, LandsortNorra	Fig. 14, Forsmark

 With reference to Fig. 10 to 14 the following is worth noting:

The heat capacity of the upper 3m of the oceans is equivalent to the entire heat capacity of the atmosphere http://www.atm.ox.ac.uk/user/read/downloads/Marshall_oc/lecture1.pdf  http://amcg.ese.ic.ac.uk/images/5/5a/Lecture1.pdf

The heat capacity of the global atmosphere corresponds to that of only a 3.5 m layer of the oceanhttp://www.oco.noaa.gov/roleofOcean.html

More data about ocean dimension:  In a graphic HERE _____ L. Giomeno  EOS/AGU June 2011 Vol. 92:   http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/eost2011EO23/pdf

  First Addendum, 13/15 Apr.2013: Is the North Sea Stupid? (Fig.15ff)

"Met Office chief scientist Julia Slingo said climate change was “loading the dice” towards freezing, drier weather — and called publicly for the first time for an urgent investigation." reports THE SUN, mentioning Julia Slingo’s concern that Britain’s winters are getting colder because of melting Arctic ice.            
The recent cold weeks in March and early April triggered the concern. Instead of investigation a distant region, they should ask: “Is the North Sea stupid?” Since early March 2013 the North Sea and western Baltic’s sea water temperatures are far below average. No big surprise the regional air temperatures are either (see Fig. 1, 2 & 3). The next two Figures (Fig. 15 & 16) show the SST (sea surface T°C) of today -13.Apr.13-, and the further Fig. 17 & 18, the situation one year ago on 15 April 2012. Every attempt to understand recent British weather better can not ignore the water temperatures of the North- and Baltic Sea , and whether human activities in the regional seas have contributed. The extreme temperature condition during March 2013 offers a unique case to be studied thoroughly.

Fig. 15;  13. April 2013	Fig. 16;  13. April 2013
Fig. 17;  15. April 2012	Fig. 18;  15. April 2012
Fig. 19; Forecast T°C Anomalies 8-15/Apr.13	Fig. 20; Forecast T°C Anomalies 15-22/Apr.13
Fig.. 21; SST Anomalies 15.Apr.2013	Fig.. 22; SST Anomalies 15.Apr.2013

 

Friday the 19th April 2013 Fig. 24 & 25 ; air & sea temperature Fig. 26 & 27 on Baltic sea ice condition
The air T°C is above average	The sea is below mean T°C
Sea ice is well be low long term mean

 News Report Links: 

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-10/met-offices-urgent-inquiry-into-arctic-effect-on-uk-weather/  http://www.itv.com/news/2013-04-10/met-office-investigating-arctic-link-in-record-low-temperatures/   For the Record (update 11th April 2013) Calculations are still being finalised, but it appears the daytime temperatures recorded at Heathrow, South Farnborough and Wattisham on April 4 were the lowest since the 1960s. A swathe of records were also broken in Scotland on the night of April 1st: ·         Loch Glascarnoch Ross and Cromarty: -9C (lowest since 1962) ·         Aviemore Inverness-shire: -8.8C (lowest since 1982) ·         Kinlochewe Ross and Cromarty: -6.1C (lowest since 1959) ·         Cassley Sutherland: -7.2C (lowest since 1974)     Daily Mail:   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2307333/Is-UK-heading-Arctic-winters- Met-Office-calls-urgent-meeting-discuss-melting-ice-causing-Britain-freeze.html The Sun:  http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4881369/Is-the-UK-set-for-Arctic-weather.html

 Related Material and Discussion at :

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

 

The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!

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