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CLIMATE CHANGE & NAVAL WAR
A Scientific Assessment
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Extract from a Baltic Sea
Report 2008

Date: 11th March 2015

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Few extract relevant concerning the post:

Offshore Wind-parks and mild Winters.
Contribution from Ships, Fishery, Windparks etc.


Online – HERE   http://climate-ocean.com/2015/K.html



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 EXTRACTS from

 Series Editors: H.-J. Bolle, M. Menenti, I. Rasool

Assessment of Climate Change
for the Baltic Sea Basin

The BACC Author Team
The International BALTEX Secretariat
GKSS-Forschungszentrum
Geesthacht GmbH
Max-Planck-Str. 1
D-21502 Geesthacht
Germany
baltex@gkss.de

ISBN: 978-3-540-72785-9 e-ISBN: 978-3-540-72786-6,  Regional Climate Studies ISSN: pending, Library of Congress Control Number: 2007938497,
c 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Hardcover: 474 pages;   Publisher: Springer; 1st ed. 2008. Corr. 2nd printing 2008 edition (April 6, 2011)

Online:     http://www.hzg.de/institutes_platforms/coastal_research/about_us/projects/baltic_earth/index.php.de


Page

Extract

 

 

1.5 Ongoing Change and Projections for the Baltic Sea Basin – A Summary

 

23

During the 200 years studied, the19th and20th centuries’ climates differ in several ways. Towards the end of the 19th century, the Little Ice Age ended in the region, and during the period 1871–2004 there were significant positive trends in the mean temperature for the northern and southern Baltic Sea Basin, being 0.10˚C/decade on the average north of60◦N and 0.07˚C/decade on the average south of60◦

N.

 

23

With regard to annual mean temperatures, there was an early20th

century warming that culminated in the 1930s. This was followed by a cooling that ended in the 1960s and then another warming until the present.

 

23

The warming is characterized by a pattern where mean daily minimum temperatures have increased more than mean daily maximum temperatures. Spring is the season showing the strongest warming.

 

23

The number of cold nights has decreased and the number of warm days has increased, with the strongest change during the winter season.

 

23

The variability in atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on the surface climate in northern Europe. From about the 1960s until the

1990s, westerly airflow intensified during wintertime.

 

23

This increased frequency of maritime air masses contributed to higher wintertime temperatures and enhanced precipitation at regions exposed to westerlies, especially during the 1990s.

 

23

On a centennial timescale it can be seen that relationships between large scale atmospheric circulation and surface climate elements show strong temporal variability.

 

 

24

A climate warming can be detected from the time series of the maximum annual extent of sea ice and the length of the ice season in the Baltic Sea. On the basis of the ice extent, the

shift towards a warmer climate took place in the latter half of the 19th century.

 

 

1.5.2 Perspectives for Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Basin

 

25

Projected future warming in the Baltic Sea Basin generally exceeds the global mean warming in global climate model (GCM) simulations.Looking at the annual mean from an ensemble of 20 GCM simulations, regional warming over

the Baltic Sea Basin would be 0.9˚Chigher than global mean warming, or some 50% larger in relative terms.

 

25

Consistent with GCM studies, all available downscaling studies also indicate increases in temperature during all seasons for every subregion of the Baltic Sea Basin. Combined results show a projected warming of the mean annual temperature by some 3 to 5˚Cfor the total basin. Seasonally, the largest part of this warming would occur in the northern areas of the Baltic Sea Basin during winter months and in the southern areas during summer months. Corresponding changes in temperatures would be 4 to 6˚Cin winter and 3to5˚Cin summer, as estimated from a matrix of regional climate model experiments.

 

26

Oceanographic studies show that the mean annual sea surface temperatures could increase by some2to4˚Cby the end of the 21st century. Ice extent in the sea would then decrease by some 50 to 80%. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is projected to decrease between 8 and 50%. However, it should be noted that these oceanographic findings are based upon only four regional scenario simulations using two emissions scenarios and two

global models.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 Past and Current Climate Change pp. 35-112

 

 

2.2.2 Ice Regime ....................................... 79

2.2.2.1 IceEventsandIceThicknessinRivers .................. 79

2.2.2.2 IceEventsandIceThicknessinLakes................... 79

2.2.2.3 IceConditionsinRiversandLakesinFinland .............. 82

2.2.3 Snow Cover....................................... 82


2.3 TheBalticSea ......................................... 87

2.3.1 HydrographicCharacteristics ............................. 87

2.3.1.1 Temperature ................................. 88

2.3.1.2 SalinityandSaltwaterInflows ....................... 93


2.3.2 Sea Level ........................................ 96

2.3.2.1 MainFactorsAffectingtheMeanSeaLevel................ 96

2.3.2.2 Changes in the Sea-level from the 1800s to Today ............ 97

2.3.2.3 Influence of Atmospheric Circulation.................... 99

2.3.3 Sea Ice.......................................... 99

2.3.3.1 IceExtent ..................................100

2.3.3.2 LengthoftheIceSeason ..........................101

2.3.3.3 IceThickness.................................102

2.3.3.4 Large-scale Atmospheric Forcing on the Ice Conditions .........102

2.3.3.5 Summary ...............

 

89

The correlations between SST anomalies and air pressure pattern are weaker during the summer months (Janssen 2002).

 

89

Their analysis demonstrated that the late 1990s were characterised by warmer summers and colder winters compared to the years before and after.

 

89

The more detailed analysis was able to detect anomalies in seasonal extremes as well as an increase in annual mean sea surface temperature of 0.8˚C,and in some areas of the Baltic Sea even higher increases, during most of the period analysed (1990–2004).

 

89

Despite an atmospheric warming of 1˚C, no trend in the modelled mean (averaged over the whole Baltic Sea and all depths) Baltic Sea water temperature was identified (Fig. 2.48).

 

91

However, from Fig. 2.50 and Fig. A.4 (Annex 1.1) it is evident that lower deep water temperatures were observed in the first half of the century than in the second half, which might be an indicator for a trend in annual temperatures.

 

 

 

 

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2.3.3 Sea Ice, pp 99-

 

101

The latest extremely severe ice winter occurred in 1986–1987, and the latest winters with the Baltic Sea totally frozen have been in 1941–1942 (certainly) and 1946–1947 (most probably; Simojoki 1952).

 

102

In general, the observations show a tendency towards milder ice conditions, where the largest change is in the length of the ice season, which has decreased by 14–44 days in a century, which, in turn, is largely due to the earlier ice break-up.

 

104

2.3.3.5 Summary A climate warming can be detected from the time series of the maximum annual extent of sea ice and the length of the ice season in the Baltic Sea…..cont.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Projections of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change, pp 133-204

 

 

3.8 Projections of Future Changes in the Baltic Sea.......................194

3.8.1 OceanographicModelsandAnthropogenicClimateChange ............194

3.8.2 ProjectedChangesinSeaIce .............................194

3.8.3 ProjectedChangesinSeaSurfaceTemperatureandSurfaceHeatFluxes.....195

3.8.4 ProjectedChangesinSeaLevelandWindWaves..................196

3.8.5 ProjectedChangesinSalinityandVerticalOverturningCirculation .......198

3.9 FutureDevelopmentinProjectingAnthropogenicClimateChanges.

 

176

Summertime warm temperatures, future climate

 

176

Wintertime cold temperatures, future climate

 

203

Projected future warming in the Baltic Sea Basin generally exceeds the global mean warming in GCM (global climate model) simulations.

 

203

Consistent with GCM studies, all available downscaling studies also indicate increases in temperature during all seasons for every subregion of the Baltic Sea Basin. Combined results show a projected warming of the mean annual temperature by some 3 to 5˚C for the total basin. Seasonally, the largest part of this warming would occur in the northern areas of the Baltic Sea Basin during winter months and in the southern areas of the Baltic Sea Basin during summer months. Corresponding changes in temperatures would be 4 to 6˚C in winter and 3 to 5˚C in summer, as estimated from a matrix of regional climate model experiments.

 

 

 

 

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A Annexes, pp. 379-469

 

 

A.1 Physical System Description..................................379

A.1.1 Baltic Sea Oeanography ...............................379

A.1.1.1 Genera lFeatures...............................379

A.1.1.2 External Water Budgetand Residence Time ...............382

A.1.1.3 Processes and Patterns of Internal Water Cycle ..............382

A.1.2 Atmosphere...........................cont//

 

436

A.4.2.1 Hydrographic Characteristics

 

440

A.4.5 Observational and Model Data for Anthropogenic Input

 

 

 

 

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V

 

 

 


 

 Station overview

 A17 - TC - 22. Sept.


A17 - Salt - 22. Sept.

BY1 - TC - 29. Nov.  

BY1 - Salt - 01 Nov. 


 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BY7 - TC - 01. Nov.

BY7 - Salt - 01. Nov.

BY28 - TC - 01. Nov.

BY28 - Salt - 01. Nov.


 

 

next graphic

from

Baltic
Report

 

 

 

SR5 - TC - 22. Sept.. 

SR5 - Salt - 22. Sept..

 

Central Baltic proper 

 

 


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xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxOlder Contribution xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

D-Day in June 1944 followed by worst summer storm,
which m
eteorology did not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!
First posted : http://climate-ocean.com/2013/7_4.html , April 2010 
Revised and posted here: 17. June 2013 (co_7-4)
 

Continue reading→→→

 

Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May.
The Atlantic & North Sea factor. 
Posted: 2. May 2013 (co_8-4):  
Continue reading  →→→  


'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No!
MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea !

Posted: 11. April 2013 (co 9-4)  
Continue reading →→→  

More:
The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!
 Further posts at: Home http://climate-ocean.com/ (see below)
Material on winter 2012/13 and discussion
HERE  

 









 

Terms & Conditions

            

   

   xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 Recent posts  

17.Juni 2013; D-Day in June 1944 followed by worst summer storm, which meteorology did not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!  (co_7-4)
14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June - (ocl_7-9)

02 May: Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May. (co_8-4)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 

04 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ?  A not well founded claim! 

29 March 2012: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)   

26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2)

21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3)  

20 March 13:
Mark Maslin and Patrick Austin on: “Uncertainty: Climate models at their limit?” Do they understand too little from climate to discuss the matter sufficiently?

1st Feb.13: Hamburger cold record on 13 January 1940  has an anthropogenic cause!  (co-11-9 )

19 January 2013: Northern Europe 's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. January 2013 (co-12-8)

14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. --left-- (COL-12-6)

07. Jan. 2013: Record cold in Poland ! Minus 41C on 11th Jan.1940 in Siedlce! (OCL-12-7)

23. Dec. 2012 + Update 17/01:  Had the Battle of Stalingrad been hampered by unusual low temperatures in December 1942? (OCL-12-8 

December 15, 2012: The impact of shipping on ocean and global warming (COL-12-9)

Dec. 09. 2012 (+ updates):  Are we heading to severe   Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

December 2012:
Roger Pielke Sr. and Climate Definition - A field of jargon words and misuse of definitions – (whatisclimate)

 

      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Main Sites on Climate Change during World Wars
Book 2012: http://www.seaclimate.com/
Home: http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/
Home: http://www.oceanclimate.de/
Arctic Warming 1919 – A World War I Issue
Books: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/
Home: http://www.arctic-warming.com/
Books 2005/06
Book 2005: http://climate-ocean.com/book%202012/index.html
Ditto (short version): http://www.warchangesclimate.com
 Booklet 2006: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/
Booklet in Russian 2006: http://www.1okeah-1klimat.com
 
Brief
contributions
http://www.2007seatraining.de/
http://www.whatisclimate.com/


Reference SEA-LAW (UNCLOS) links :
http://www.bernaerts-sealaw.com , http://www.bernaerts-guide.de
http://www.bernaerts-guide-russian.de ,http://www.bernaerts-unclos.de
Material in German

Book: http://www.seatraining.de/
Home:  http://www.ozeanklima.de/
Miscellaneous
http://www.1ocean-1system.de/ , http://www.seatraining.net ,