Extract from a Baltic Sea
Report 2008

Date: 11^th March 2015

BACK to POST

Few extract relevant concerning the post:

Offshore Wind-parks and mild Winters.
Contribution from Ships, Fishery, Windparks etc.

Online – HERE   http://climate-ocean.com/2015/K.html

More profile images below
- click to enlarge image -

Only images  expressly indicated are from the report
 if

ISBN: 978-3-540-72785-9 e-ISBN: 978-3-540-72786-6,  Regional Climate Studies ISSN: pending, Library of Congress Control Number: 2007938497,
c 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Hardcover: 474 pages;   Publisher: Springer; 1st ed. 2008. Corr. 2nd printing 2008 edition (April 6, 2011)

Online:     http://www.hzg.de/institutes_platforms/coastal_research/about_us/projects/baltic_earth/index.php.de

Page

Extract

1.5 Ongoing Change and Projections for the Baltic Sea Basin – A Summary

23

During the 200 years studied, the19th and20th centuries’ climates differ in several ways. Towards the end of the 19^th century, the Little Ice Age ended in the region, and during the period 1871–2004 there were significant positive trends in the mean temperature for the northern and southern Baltic Sea Basin, being 0.10˚C/decade on the average north of60◦N and 0.07˚C/decade on the average south of60◦

N.

23

With regard to annual mean temperatures, there was an early20th

century warming that culminated in the 1930s. This was followed by a cooling that ended in the 1960s and then another warming until the present.

23

The warming is characterized by a pattern where mean daily minimum temperatures have increased more than mean daily maximum temperatures. Spring is the season showing the strongest warming.

23

The number of cold nights has decreased and the number of warm days has increased, with the strongest change during the winter season.

23

The variability in atmospheric circulation has a strong influence on the surface climate in northern Europe. From about the 1960s until the

1990s, westerly airflow intensified during wintertime.

23

This increased frequency of maritime air masses contributed to higher wintertime temperatures and enhanced precipitation at regions exposed to westerlies, especially during the 1990s.

23

On a centennial timescale it can be seen that relationships between large scale atmospheric circulation and surface climate elements show strong temporal variability.

24

A climate warming can be detected from the time series of the maximum annual extent of sea ice and the length of the ice season in the Baltic Sea. On the basis of the ice extent, the

shift towards a warmer climate took place in the latter half of the 19^th century.

1.5.2 Perspectives for Future Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Basin

25

Projected future warming in the Baltic Sea Basin generally exceeds the global mean warming in global climate model (GCM) simulations.Looking at the annual mean from an ensemble of 20 GCM simulations, regional warming over

the Baltic Sea Basin would be 0.9˚Chigher than global mean warming, or some 50% larger in relative terms.

25

Consistent with GCM studies, all available downscaling studies also indicate increases in temperature during all seasons for every subregion of the Baltic Sea Basin. Combined results show a projected warming of the mean annual temperature by some 3 to 5˚Cfor the total basin. Seasonally, the largest part of this warming would occur in the northern areas of the Baltic Sea Basin during winter months and in the southern areas during summer months. Corresponding changes in temperatures would be 4 to 6˚Cin winter and 3to5˚Cin summer, as estimated from a matrix of regional climate model experiments.

26

Oceanographic studies show that the mean annual sea surface temperatures could increase by some2to4˚Cby the end of the 21st century. Ice extent in the sea would then decrease by some 50 to 80%. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is projected to decrease between 8 and 50%. However, it should be noted that these oceanographic findings are based upon only four regional scenario simulations using two emissions scenarios and two

global models.

2 Past and Current Climate Change pp. 35-112

2.2.2 Ice Regime ....................................... 79

2.2.2.1 IceEventsandIceThicknessinRivers .................. 79

2.2.2.2 IceEventsandIceThicknessinLakes................... 79

2.2.2.3 IceConditionsinRiversandLakesinFinland .............. 82

2.2.3 Snow Cover....................................... 82

2.3 TheBalticSea ......................................... 87

2.3.1 HydrographicCharacteristics ............................. 87

2.3.1.1 Temperature ................................. 88

2.3.1.2 SalinityandSaltwaterInflows ....................... 93

2.3.2 Sea Level ........................................ 96

2.3.2.1 MainFactorsAffectingtheMeanSeaLevel................ 96

2.3.2.2 Changes in the Sea-level from the 1800s to Today ............ 97

2.3.2.3 Influence of Atmospheric Circulation.................... 99

2.3.3 Sea Ice.......................................... 99

2.3.3.1 IceExtent ..................................100

2.3.3.2 LengthoftheIceSeason ..........................101

2.3.3.3 IceThickness.................................102

2.3.3.4 Large-scale Atmospheric Forcing on the Ice Conditions .........102

2.3.3.5 Summary ...............

89

The correlations between SST anomalies and air pressure pattern are weaker during the summer months (Janssen 2002).

89

Their analysis demonstrated that the late 1990s were characterised by warmer summers and colder winters compared to the years before and after.

89

The more detailed analysis was able to detect anomalies in seasonal extremes as well as an increase in annual mean sea surface temperature of 0.8˚C,and in some areas of the Baltic Sea even higher increases, during most of the period analysed (1990–2004).

89

Despite an atmospheric warming of 1˚C, no trend in the modelled mean (averaged over the whole Baltic Sea and all depths) Baltic Sea water temperature was identified (Fig. 2.48).

91

However, from Fig. 2.50 and Fig. A.4 (Annex 1.1) it is evident that lower deep water temperatures were observed in the first half of the century than in the second half, which might be an indicator for a trend in annual temperatures.

2.3.3 Sea Ice, pp 99-

101

The latest extremely severe ice winter occurred in 1986–1987, and the latest winters with the Baltic Sea totally frozen have been in 1941–1942 (certainly) and 1946–1947 (most probably; Simojoki 1952).

102

In general, the observations show a tendency towards milder ice conditions, where the largest change is in the length of the ice season, which has decreased by 14–44 days in a century, which, in turn, is largely due to the earlier ice break-up.

104

2.3.3.5 Summary A climate warming can be detected from the time series of the maximum annual extent of sea ice and the length of the ice season in the Baltic Sea…..cont.

3 Projections of Future Anthropogenic Climate Change, pp 133-204

3.8 Projections of Future Changes in the Baltic Sea.......................194

3.8.1 OceanographicModelsandAnthropogenicClimateChange ............194

3.8.2 ProjectedChangesinSeaIce .............................194

3.8.3 ProjectedChangesinSeaSurfaceTemperatureandSurfaceHeatFluxes.....195

3.8.4 ProjectedChangesinSeaLevelandWindWaves..................196

3.8.5 ProjectedChangesinSalinityandVerticalOverturningCirculation .......198

3.9 FutureDevelopmentinProjectingAnthropogenicClimateChanges.

176

Summertime warm temperatures, future climate

176

Wintertime cold temperatures, future climate

203

Projected future warming in the Baltic Sea Basin generally exceeds the global mean warming in GCM (global climate model) simulations.

203

Consistent with GCM studies, all available downscaling studies also indicate increases in temperature during all seasons for every subregion of the Baltic Sea Basin. Combined results show a projected warming of the mean annual temperature by some 3 to 5˚C for the total basin. Seasonally, the largest part of this warming would occur in the northern areas of the Baltic Sea Basin during winter months and in the southern areas of the Baltic Sea Basin during summer months. Corresponding changes in temperatures would be 4 to 6˚C in winter and 3 to 5˚C in summer, as estimated from a matrix of regional climate model experiments.

A Annexes, pp. 379-469

A.1 Physical System Description..................................379

A.1.1 Baltic Sea Oeanography ...............................379

A.1.1.1 Genera lFeatures...............................379

A.1.1.2 External Water Budgetand Residence Time ...............382

A.1.1.3 Processes and Patterns of Internal Water Cycle ..............382

A.1.2 Atmosphere...........................cont//

436

A.4.2.1 Hydrographic Characteristics

440

A.4.5 Observational and Model Data for Anthropogenic Input