oil spill impact on
winter weather in Europe 2010/11
and elsewhere – possible?
Posted 20 January 2015
A number of cold
weather records were observed in Europe in late 2010, due to a “blocking” of
weather”, whereby the movement of migratory cyclones was interrupted. The
blocking source is closely related to general North Atlantic conditions at that
time, which we summarized in the section below: FACTS
– Reports- Analysis Autumn/Winter 2010/11.
Click image to
Only six month
earlier the most sincere marine environmental disaster took place a few
thousand nautical miles away in the Caribbean. The largest oil spill ever occurred on 20th
April 2010 in about 1’500 meter depths in a semi-enclosed sea in the Gulf of
Mexico about 42 miles off the coast of Louisiana. 10 years later the
responsible company has spent more than $28 billion on cleanup costs and damage
claims, and may eventually be liable for at least another $18 billion in
damages. The case had an extraordinary dramatic, and is presumably now one of
the best investigated case ever, if one aspect had not been ignored, namely
whether a significant part of the oil has passed the about 500-700 meter depths
waters around Florida, and changed North Atlantic condition along the Gulf
Current and subsequently the weather pattern in Europe and in the wider
Northern Hemisphere during autumn and winter 2010/11.
If for example the
December in Great Britain is the second coldest during a period of 352 years, than it is inacceptable not to ask
why. Any oil floating at any level of depth may have a multiple impact on
internal ocean condition, making the sea surface warmer or colder. The weather
excesses require an explanation. “‘Nothing happens in this world expect
as allowed by the laws of physics.’ explained Andrew A. Lacis, recently (NYT,17. Feb.2010) The oceans are no exception.
The matter raise a
number of question, respectively requires an answer.
chance to establish a link between the Deepwater
Horizon and weather extremes in the Northern Hemisphere over the
next nine months is at best 50:50 percent. But even if the oil spill in
the Caribbean contributed only 1% to the cold November and December 2010
, it should be known, explained and communicated. Anything
less would be irresponsible for a multi-billion climate research industry.
A comprehensive reappraisal of the oil-spill event on 20th
April 2010 is still pending.
Kindly take note of the
list of FACTS (below), to consider whether more investigations should be
undertaken without further delay to understand the reasons for the weather
deviations in Northern Europe and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere
during the nine months following the Deepwater
Reports- Analysis Autumn/Winter 2010/11 (selection):
Hurricane Seasons: 2010 is Third Most Active on Record, while 2005
Tops the List.
__ January-November 2010 surface temperature
anomalies ….is the warmest January-November in the GISS analysis, which
covers 131 years. See graphic
July /August 2010:
heat wave hit Eastern Europe as exceptionally strong jet stream winds blew in from the Sahara across the Balkan
and into both Poland and
Ukraine on June 10. ___ In mid-June, a strong blocking pattern settled
over western Russia, bringing an unprecedented two-month long heat wave to
the area. (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2010/13
___The Russian heat wave contributed to
several hundred wildfires that broke out across Russia, primarily in the west
in summer 2010. They started burning in late July and lasted until early
___30 October 2010, D’Aleo at Icecap: The degree
and location of blocking high pressure in the Atlantic will determine how
much cold and snow in Europe and Asia.
__11/13. December; James Hansen et al., “2010 — Global Temperature and Europe's Frigid Air”: The cold anomaly in Northern
Europe in November has continued and strengthened in the first half of
December. Northern Europe had negative anomalies of more than 4°C.
__www.islandnet.com (11.Jan.2011): “On the eastern side of the Greenland High
block, extreme cold had begun in November across much of Northern Europe. The
first week of December was abnormally cold for much of Europe and parts of
the United States.”
A blocking high is defined as an
anticyclone (a cell of high surface pressure) that remains stationary or
nearly so and blocks the normal movement of migratory cyclones across the
November 2010 at NoTricksZone: Joe Bastardi predicts a cold snap coming soon:
“…blocking is developing and a major early season outbreak of cold looks to
be shaping up as we wind the clock toward December”.
January, Met Office, www.metoffice.gov.uk – “December 2010 has become the
coldest December across the UK since the national series began in 1910.
--The mean temperature for the
UK has been -1.0 °C, well below the long term average
of 4.2 °C. The previous
coldest December in the series was 0.1 °C, in 1981.
--In the last 100 years, the
UK has experienced five colder months - January 1940,
February 1947, January
1963, February 1963 and February 1986.
Ireland December has been the coldest month ever since records began 130
years ago; at Ireland’s Armagh Observatory the second coldest since 1795.
England Temperature record is one of the longest (since 1659). December 2010 was the coldest December in
120 years with an average of -0.7C just short of the record of -0.8C recorded
in December 1890 and the Second Coldest December Temperature in the entire
record (352 years).
__ According to the Swedish meteorological agency SMHI, several parts of
the southern region Gotaland and eastern Svealand, experienced the coldest
December in at least 110 years.”
several parts of Sweden, including the Gotaland and eastern Svealand,
experienced the coldest December in at least 110 years.
___ Germany has experienced the coldest December
in more than 40 years.
sudden stratospheric warming, among other things the differences in pressure
between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High are reduced. This pressure
difference determines the prevailing wind direction for Central Europe and
thus determines whether the European winter turns cold or warm. Thus, for
example, the 2009/2010 winter was characterized by a highly disturbed polar
vortex, and in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere there was a severe and
snowy winter.” Last paragraph from text at: “Meteorologists at Freie
Universität Identify Cause of Cold and Warm Periods during Winter” ; http://www.fu-berlin.de/en/presse/informationen/fup/2011/fup_11_013/index.html
___01. March, van Oldenborgh, at www.knmi.nl - (A winter of extremes):” The cold
weather in northern Europe in winter 2010 was …….caused by a very strong
negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, a pressure pattern that disrupts
the usual flow patterns on the northern hemisphere. The Arctic Oscillation
Index had its lowest value since the beginning of the observations in 1900.”
D-Day in June 1944
followed by worst summer storm,
which meteorology did
not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!
First posted : http://climate-ocean.com/2013/7_4.html
, April 2010
Revised and posted here: 17. June 2013 (co_7-4)
Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May.
The Atlantic & North Sea factor.
Posted: 2. May 2013 (co_8-4): Continue reading →→→
'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme
MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the
North- and Baltic Sea !
Posted: 11. April 2013 (co 9-4)
Continue reading →→→
The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!
Further posts at: Home http://climate-ocean.com/ (see below)
Material on winter 2012/13 and discussion
the new Book Publication
of Meteorology? Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars?"