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J.
Results:
Climatology
does not care! The connection between two naval wars and two climatic
changes within 25 years has not yet been investigated and explained. Worse!
Climate science does not know to this day that during the global warming
over the last 150 years the two world wars
have influenced two of the most significant
climatic changes in this period. Even for meteorologists
of a war generation there were no obstacles to
obtain knowledge about this
relationship. If they had warned governments
about the threat of climate change, as
their successors currently do with the "greenhouse
effect", naval activities in two World Wars
may have been prevented, or at least
been limited. They did not, and
this justifies the question:
Had meteorology been too ignorant and incompetent in the
first half of last century?
Demonstrating
the effect of naval
warfare is not difficult,
if one recognizes the seas
as the dominating climate
factor, which is particularly obvious during winter
seasons at higher latitudes. Naval warfare contributed to a
strong Northern Hemispheric warming phase
(1919-1939), and a
global cooling phase (1940-1975),
at least partially.
The starting points are the
three extremely cold war
winters of 1939/40, 1940/41 and
1941/42 in northern
Europe
. Had they happened without the war at sea? No! To
prove this, the study used
more than four-fifths of
the available book space as evidence. The
result is convincing. The three
extreme winters are
anthropogenic. The medium is the sea. This
justifies, assuming a link with
a global cooling since 1940 for three decades.
Naval warfare impact in WWII has been confirmed concerning air winter
temperatures in
Europe
. The available material is sufficient enough. Especially helpful
are 14 temperature maps,
which are reproduced
in color, and are available digital.
All data show: The world
was warm, just
Europe
froze. It is
shown that a cold
corridor extends from the west
coast of
England
, via
North Sea
and Baltic towards the
Ural. This applies to all three
winters, but is especially elaborated
for the first war winter
1939/40 (pp. 43-104). This
winter was a
complete surprise to all contemporaries, and
any deviation is based on
observations from periods without
human military interference with the marine
environment. Evidential circumstances can be also drawn from the
sea ice development in the
North Sea
and Baltic, which received their first full-icing
since 1883. It is getting
sensational if one adds the air temperatures
and sea ice cover of the
initial three war winters and is looking for comparable
periods. They do not seem to exist. Their absence
confirms this thesis. That
these three extreme winters
were not repeated between 1943 and 1945 can be explained
by the fact that naval war went global after the attack on
Pearl Harbor in December 1941,
and that war activities at sea happened across the
Atlantic
and the Western Pacific.
With
the relocation of naval warfare from
Europe
into the oceans of
the Northern Hemisphere, the consolidation
of global cooling began,
which statistically commenced with the extreme
winter 1939/40. In
return, it is evident in
temperature data at many of the Atlantic
locations. In a recent
study by Thompson
(et al.,
2010) only a
late phase of global
cooling around 1970, is attributed to lower
water temperatures in the
North Atlantic
. The authors
have spent no word on possible contributions during 5
years of naval war in
the
Atlantic
. They ignore, as other
climate scientists have, the
role of the
Atlantic
for the change to a
cold phase from 1940 onwards.
Also in the northern Pacific,
there was an abrupt change in
surface temperatures, after
amassing colossal war machineries between
Hawaii
and the Asian continent from December 1941 to August 1945. A change
in the attributes of warm and cold water, known as "Pacific
Decadal Oscillation", began in 1943. Since
this phenomenon has been in place only two times
in the last century, a contribution
by the Pacific War is also indicated.
This is supported by the
very cold winter of 1944-45 in
Japan, as well as by low temperatures in the following
summer months, when naval warfare came
closer and closer to Japan’s shores.
Meteorology
could have foreseen these developments, if they
had ever undertaken attempts to analyze the
weather and climate development during
the First World War, and
after the surprising extreme WWII winters. At the
latest, when it became known, that winter
temperatures had rapidly increased at Spitsbergen since 1918/19,
time had come to analyze the effect of naval warfare
on weather conditions
in Europe, on the sea
areas in Western Europe
and their connection to the
Norway
and West Spitsbergen
Currents. But neither
for example an exceptional snow
incident in England
over three successive winters,
nor the increasing sea ice cover in the Baltic (see
Ref: Drummond and Oestman, A1,
p. 2), or the cold winter 1916/17 in Western
Europe, neither the extreme sea ice in the Nordic Sea during summer 1917,
etc, were taken into consideration. How
is it possible that massive naval wars have been ignored as contributors
to the potential of anthropogenic climate change? Thus,
meteorologists have failed to
gain the competence
which would have enabled them to warn about
possible consequences of a second world war. The
consequences are inadequately
described, with the word, ‘tragic'.
The
tragedy
continues: Even after
90 respectively 70 years,
none of the issues raised have
been picked up by climatology and were never answered
or elaborated. Instead, it is suggested to
the public and politics that
the climate system and anthropogenic
influences, with reference
to the greenhouse effect,
is well understood.
This
is objectively irresponsible, as long as weather and climate changes,
which could be observed during both world wars, are neither discussed, nor
explained. The role of naval war needs to be understood as it underlines
the role of the seas. The findings significantly highlight the dominance
of the oceans in weather and climate systems. One may have to speak about
a lack of professionalism, if it is recalled what the famous oceanographer
H.U. Sverdrup (1942) had already told meteorologists 70 years ago:
It
might appear, therefore, as if the oceanic
circulation and the distribution of temperature
and salinity in the ocean are caused by the
atmospheric processes, but such a conclusion would be
erroneous, because the energy that maintains the
atmospheric circulation is to be greatly supplied
by the oceans.
Compiled
from: Nasa/
GISS
Surface Temperature Analysis; NASA Official: James E. Hansen
"Oceanography
for Meteorologists",
New York
1942, page 223.
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