Cold March 2013 in company with 
March 1942 & 1917
Posted by oceanclimate 29 March 2013 (co_10-2)

BELOW:   
__First Addendum (30/03/13): News from THE WASHINGTON POST : “Freezing cold March sets records across Europe ” by Justin Grieser on March 29, 2013 at 1:15 pm;  
__Second Addendum (31/03/13): Status SST North Sea, 31 March 2013
__Third Addendum (01/04/13): Status Baltic Sea Ice 1^st April 2013  
__Fourth Addendum: Status per 5^th April 2013

Soon we will know! Is March 2013, with three degrees below long-term average, set to be the coldest in the UK since 1962, predicts the guardian.co.uk (28Mar13). Eastwards of the North Sea the look for a comparable coold March may cover more decades. What a cold March means, is indicated in a global temperature map for March 1942, Figure 1, because it is one of the coldest since about 1888, and more important it is the 3rd March in World War II, or nine months after Germany had ambushed the Soviet Union, and four months after the U.S.A became a war party. In autumn 1941 until early 1942 when sea ice prevent fighting at sea, the Baltic was covered by the fiercest naval activities in the region ever.           Fig. 1 

The following March temperature data from various stations show also the relevance of another year during a world war, namely 1917. For those who are not very familiar with naval history, here is a brief excerpt from a book chapter discussing the impact of naval war on climate changes:

  ---“ Autumn 1916 to November 1918: The naval war machinery went along in full gear since summer 1916, due to new weaponry and mass production. From now on to the end of 1917 the Allies lost, a ship tonnage of about 7,000,000 tons, which means every month between 70 and 350 ships (April 1917)….. “ Full Chapter: Here.  

NOTE: Whether 1917, 1942 or 2013 a key subject to understand an exceptional cold March month is the state of the North- and Baltic Sea ! This year the North Sea was very cold recently, see HERE & HERE

 The first city chosen is Berlin, as the records, using in all examples “giss.nasa” data, which start about 1881, Fig 2. In Berlin-Dahlem, the coldest March months since 1886 occurred in 1917 and 1942. Astonishing are the temperature difference toward Berlin-Potsdam from 1958 to 1987, with up to 0,5°, while it is worth noting, that since recording commenced at Potsdam, the coldest March was in 1917.  

Fig. 2	Fig. 3,	Fig. 4

 Remarkable as well is the situation at two Baltic cities, Stockholm and Tallinn (Fig. 3), where March 1942 succeeds all other years since 1888, and that also March 1940, the seventh month in WWII, has a top ranking. Particularly astonishing are the conditions in the Skagerrak range (Fig.4), as March 1942 is by far colder than in all other years (up to 1956 only at NO stations), and even succeed 1888. March 1917 is also prominently included. 

 A brief web-search in UK  air T°C history did not revealed any specifics to me. But careful, for any keen climatologist, the historic March temperature condition offers a strong hint of an evidential link between naval war activities and weather conditions. The news reference (above), mentions the coldest March in the UK, namely  1962, at 1.9°C, followed by 1947, 2.2°C, 1937, 2.4°C, and 1916 and 1917, 2.5°C. Since August 1914 naval war surrounded the British Isle. A number of exceptional weather events occurred in or close to UK waters, in addition to the two cold March months (more: HERE), but the Met Office is not investigating, although almost 100 years have been available.

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First Addendum 30 March 2013

News from

THE WASHINGTON POST : “Freezing cold March sets records across Europe ”by Justin Grieser on March 29, 2013 at 1:15 pm; 
Few excerpts:

___Like much of the eastern U.S., Europe has been stubbornly cold this March.
___The Met Office reports this has been the UK ’s coldest March since 1962……making it the 4th coldest March since records began in 1910.
____In Germany, the cold has been especially relentless. A new press release from the German weather service (DWD) reports that this month was the second coldest March in 50 years, behind only 1987…
Nationally, the average March 2013 temperature in Germany was a remarkable 4.1ºC (7.4ºF) below the 1981-2010 normal (6th coldest since records began in 1881).

 The Washingtion Post then asks: “What’s driving the cold?” Concerning Europe it is said:

__The sharply negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has weakened the normal pressure gradient over the North Atlantic, instead allowing a stubborn area of high pressure to remain locked over Scandinavia. Clockwise rotation around that high has sent freezing northeasterly winds into Germany and as far west as the UK and Ireland .

The entire article HERE

The question which should have been asked is: Why is the high pressure locked over Scandinavia and what role do the North- and Baltic Sea have in this scenario? 
AND if any impact is significant, has the status of the regional seas been influenced by human activities?

As already indicated above : Whether 1917, 1942 or 2013 a key subject to understand an exceptional cold March month is the state of the North- and Baltic Sea ! This year the North Sea was very cold recently, see HERE & HERE  

Fig. 5

Graphic and Caption by  The Washington Post (29/03/13)*]:   Northern hemisphere surface temperature departures from normal in March 2013. High pressure and above-average temperatures over Greenland have brought arctic air unusually far south. (NOAA ESRL)  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/ wp/2013/03/29/cold-march-sets-records-across-europe/

 Second Addendum (31/03/13): Status SST North Sea, 31 March 2013  

Fig. 6	Fig. 7

The Guardian, Sunday 31 March 2013, 18.35 BST, reports:

__ Easter Sunday coldest on record. Met Office confirms temperatures of -12.5C in Scottish Highlands, beating previous record of -9.8C set in 1986.

• The UK has recorded its coldest Easter Sunday for more than 50 years, with overnight temperatures dipping to below -12C in Scotland. The Met Office confirmed it had registered a temperature of -12.5 in Braemar, Aberdeenshire, in the Scottish Highlands. With modern records dating back to 1960, Sunday's freezing weather beat the previous record of -9.8, set in 1986.
• The Met Office said the month of March still looked set to be the coldest since 1962 and the fourth coldest since 1910.
• From 1-26 March the UK mean temperature was 2.5C, three degrees below the long-term average.  

Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD - 09. April 2013 (Pressemitteilung) 
EXTRACT from:  The weather in Germany in March 2013 

•    Cold March and lots of snow – many records in eastern and northern regions
  Offenbach, 28 March 2013 – After a relatively mild start, Germany was caught on the southern edge of a strong high pressure system over a large area of Northern Europe that, at times, drew in extremely cold air from the Arctic. This set a series of records for cold temperatures and quantities of snow, particularly for stations in the north and east. Only southern and central Germany experienced moments of spring-like weather. Altogether March was much too cold, with low levels of precipitation and above average sunshine nearly everywhere, as the initial analysis by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) of data from its around 2,000 weather stations shows.  
  Full DWD-TEXT at: Presse/Press Releases 2013 at: http://www.dwd.de/
  

Third Addendum (01/04/13): Status Baltic Sea Ice 1^st April 2013

 Throughout January, February and March 2913 the sea ice never dropped below average condition [average (= normal) ice conditions (1965-1986)], including on the 1^st April 2013 (Fig. 6-8).

Fig. 8	Fig. 9	Fig. 10

 In January (Fig. 11) and in March (Fig.12) the Baltic Sea area was temporarily caught by  very low temperatures from Siberia , but Eastern Baltic ice conditions were finally not pushed below average. There is a clear distinction between SST east of Bornholm and the North Sea , and Kattegat etc. (Fig.6), and further east.  

Figure 11: T°C forecast 07 – 23 January 2013; from http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/13/Arch/12_7.html	Figure 12, Forecast T°C Anomalies, 09-16 March 2013; from http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/13/Arch/10_3.html

Fourth Addendum: Status per 5^th April 2013

 The sea water  (Fig. 15-16 and Fig. 18-19) and sea ice conditions (Fig. 20) stopped decreasing by about the 1^st April, and commenced warming. The shown stations indicate perfectly how sufficiently the sun is already warming the sea surface layer  (down to a depth of 1m) during daytime until early afternoon, a heat mostly lost again until next day morning hours. On the other hand the North Sea is still too cold (Fig. 21) and at the unmanned Light-vessel EMS the lowest water temperature of this winter may have been measured today (Fig. 22).  Fig. 23-25 indicate that the continuing cold, including 05 April 2013 in the NE UK and N-Germany is due to sub cold North Sea conditions (Fig.21) .

Fig. 15 & 16	Fig. 17 & 20	Fig. 18 & 19

Fig. 21	Fig. 22

 

Fig. 23 & 24; T°C – 05 April 2013, ~ 06h	Fig. 25;  ToC Forecast  (2 Weeks  & T°C Anomalies (1 Week)

Remark: The continuing cold in NW Europe has no link to NE Asia but its source is - at least partly - the North Sea including English Channel and Southern Baltic Sea (Fig. 21)

 

 Related Material and Discussion at :

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

 

The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!

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