Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May.
The Atlantic & North Sea factor.  
Posted: 2. May 2013 (co_8-4)

1st Addendum: Mid May 2013 – Cold North Sea /Snow in UK →→ GO  
2nd Addendum: Extraordinary Baltic SST warming within few days.   →GO→
3rd. Addendum: Failure not to know why the North Sea  is still 
so cold during May!  →GO→  
4th Add: NATIONAL NEWS / UK ; “Spring 'the coldest for 50 years' “  Box 18
5th Add: UK Weather Report–Spring 2013 →→GO→→  Box 20

This paper is a round-up of the winter 2012/13 that received as early as December 2012 high attention, due to an unusual cold-spell around the 20^th December and sea ice in the NE Baltic; HERE. The winter highlight came with March 2013, in some areas or location the coldest for many decades, or up to 200 years, which was thoroughly by us, for example HERE, HERE & HERE, with the attention to raise the awareness of the role the North- and Baltic Sea may have played in the wintry spring.

As sea water condition remained sub-cold throughout April 2013 in the North Sea and SW Baltic, the climatic condition shall be documented by reference to official reports and temperature maps. As per today (2^nd May) we are aware only of a April 2013 analysis by the ‘Deutscher Wetterdienst ‘ DWD  dated 29/04/13 ( HERE. excerpts):  

                                                 April 2013 Weather Analysis         

__Germany began the month of April with winter-like conditions, but the weather managed to warm up by mid month and ended up being just about normal, temperature-wise. __For precipitation, it was drier than normal in Germany - for the 5th April in a row. The amount of sunshine was also slightly below average, according to the DWD. The results are based on measurements taken from 2000 surface stations across the country. __The DWD reports that the mean temperature for April was 8.2° Celsius, which is 0.8°C warmer than the relatively cool international reference period of 1961 – 1990, but 0.1°C cooler than the 1981 to 2010 period. And because March was far below normal, the 2013 MAM spring period so far is much cooler than normal. (Selection/Translation Pierre Gosselin /30.April 2013 at: http://notrickszone.com *) COMMENT: DWD reckons that Schleswig-Holstein –SH- (between Hamburg and Denmark ) was the coldest country in Germany in April 2013, and names as reason arctic air from the East. That ignores the fact that the North Sea and western Baltic Sea had been sub cold since early March 2013, different from the NE Baltic, which may have contributed to low temperature in SH and The Netherlands more than cold air from elsewhere. For SST below average since early March 2013, see the following maps: __15. March http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/13/Arch/_b/9_8_3b.jpg __31. March http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/13/Arch/_b/9_8_4b.jpg __24. April http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/13/Arch/_b/9_8_8b.jpg Discussed here: “ Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored!” ___ http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/13/Arch/9_8.html, and ____ http://climate-ocean.com/2013/9_4.html on “’Urgent’ need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea !“ SOURCE: http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/30/april-2013-in-germany-comes-in-at-0-1c-colder-than-the-1981-2010-longterm-mean/

April 2013 – Material

  BOX 1 :        Global temperature anomalies from December 2012 to March 2013 (vs 1980-2010)

Fig. 3	Fig. 4	Fig. 5	Fig. 6

BOX 2 :

Development of sea water temperature over a depth of 30 meter during spring, at the station EMS in the German Bight from 09.March to 30.April 2013.
Fig. 7	Fig. 8	Fig. 9	Fig. 10

BOX 3 :

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in North- and Baltic Sea in March/April 2013
Fig. 11	Fig. 12	Fig. 13

BOX 4 :

Sea Ice during April 2013 – Which was always less than average!
Fig. 14	Fig. 15	Fig. 16	Fig. 17

Fig. 18	Fig. 19	Fig. 20

BOX 5 :

Sea surface T°C developments in Mar/Apr. at two German off-shore stations (North Sea & Baltic); See also :  Figure 7- 10 above	For further images go to : Four Swedish stations: __  http://climate-ocean.com/2013/9_4.html __   http://climate-ocean.com/2013/10_2.html
Fig. 21		Fig. 22

BOX 6 : →→top

Anomalies - Air Temperature in Europe (April 2013) and SST (1st May 2013) across the Atlantic .
Fig. 23	Fig. 24	Fig. 25	Fig. 26	Fig. 27

             May 2013 Weather Forecast      

BOX 7 :  →→top

May Forecast Leon Brown, Chief Meteorologist Published: Apr 19, 2013, THE WEATHER CANNEL	Fig. 28: Early May	Fig. 29: Mid May
LINK & Original image at : http://uk.weather.com/story/news/041913_may_outlook-20130419

Hopefully some beautiful blossom displays to come this May with a dry and settled spell for mid month, but no sign of any great warmth. ( Leon Brown/uk.weather.com).
__After the cold start to April temperatures have gradually lifted with a few warm days to kick start spring, but temperatures are still a degree or so below the long term normal for April in the UK . Some warmer days in the south at first but it looks like April will end rather cool and wintry again, so the month as a whole will remain colder than normal, but nowhere near as extreme as March. The CET is likely end up somewhere between -0.5 to -1.0C.
__So how about May and the summer?
It looks like the cold end to April will extend to the start of May with a cold trough over western Europe and a southward kink in the jet stream over the NE Atlantic . Low pressure from Iberia to the UK and eastern Atlantic with some quite wet weather for Iberia . In the UK night frosts will be a risk. The warmest weather over eastern Europe, and also drier weather too.
__From early to mid May it looks like a ridge will begin to build over central to northern Europe with the jet stream weaker and displaced well to the north. High pressure may well dominate the weather with the centre from southern Scandinavia to the North Sea . This will bring us drier and settled weather, and probably quite sunny weather too. Temperatures lifting but still slightly below normal, especially around coasts with breezes off the chilly North Sea which remains 2 to 3C below normal. With clearer skies we may also see cold nights and ground frosts, but pleasant by day in the sunshine. In Europe temperatures lifting to nearer or above normal across Germany and eastwards, but low pressure to the west of Iberia may keep Spain and Portugal rather unsettled and cooler than normal.
__For the end of May we expect the jet stream to return southwards again to bring unsettled weather back to NW Europe from the Atlantic, while the ridge and surface high pressure moves east with eastern Europe warmer and drier. This may then set the theme for the summer with cooler and wetter weather in June and July for NW Europe and hotter and drier weather over SE Europe ; very similar to the past 6 summers in fact. All this in response to the lack of sea ice over the Arctic from May which displaces and enhances the jet stream over the mid Atlantic to NW Europe.
(Emphasis added)

BOX 8: →→top

BLOOMBERG NEWS / 30.April.2013/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/europe-to-be-cooler-than-usual-for-third-month-forecasters-say.html  (Excerpt)

Europe to Be Cooler Than Usual for Third Month: Forecasters __Most of Europe will be cooler than normal for a third month in May while the Nordic region will be warmer than average, according to weather forecasters. __Below-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic will probably limit any temperature increases in central Europe and the U.K. , Bradley Harvey, an operational meteorologist at MDA Information Systems LLC, said by e-mail. Meteorologists at Deutscher Wetterdienst, WSI Corp., Meteogroup U.K. Ltd. and MetraWeather also forecast below-normal temperatures. ___“There is a signal for higher-than-average pressure to persist close to the U.K. or close to northwest Europe ,” Matt Hugo, a forecaster at MetraWeather, said by e-mail. “This may lead to a cool north or northwesterly air mass becoming established across central and northern areas of Europe around the middle of May.” ……………… ___In Germany , the average temperature will be 11.9 degrees through May 14, the data show. The seasonal norm, based on records from 1981 to 2010, is about 13 degrees Celsius, Christian Herold, a meteorologist at DWD, said by telephone from Offenbach , Germany .

 

BOX 9; see Figure 25 for reference   →→top

Reported on aturday, 04 May 2013: Record cold May in Iceland - 17.6 below zero 36 year old record cold for May in Iceland has been broken. In Grímsstaðir á Fjöllum the temperature was measured 17.6°C below zero (0.32°F) a couple of days ago. The old record was -17.4°C in Möðrudalur á Fjöllum. The Icelandic Meteorological Office predicts continuing cold, especially in the north of Iceland . http://www.newsoficeland.com/home/environment/item/1319-record-cold-may-in-iceland-176-below-zero

LINKs:

*  http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/30/april-2013-in-germany-comes-in-at-0-1c-colder-than-the-1981-2010-longterm-mean/  
BOX 7: http://uk.weather.com/story/news/041913_may_outlook-20130419 
Box 8: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/
europe-to-be-cooler-than-usual-for-third-month-forecasters-say.html

 

1st Addendum: Mid May 2013 – Cold North Sea /Snow in UK  
16. May 2013

  North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are below average (Fig. 28) for several months. North Sea water temperatures are below average since early March 2013, HERE & HERE, and Fig.11-13 above. They remained low during the first half of May 2013, while SST (anomalies) increased suddenly in the Baltic; see Fig. 29, 30, 31 & 32.

Left: Fig. 28

Now by mid May the was snow fall in central England (see the following boxes).  Most likely the sub-cold sea around Great Britain contributed to the snow event, which may only occur once in several decades.   

Fig. 29; 1.May 2013	Fig. 30; 5.May 2013	Fig. 31; 10 May 2013	Fig. 32; 15 May 2013

 

What surprises is the enormous SST anomaly between the North Sea and Baltic.

Although the Baltic deviated much less from SST average during the last few months, with lower than average sea ice conditions, including in mid May 2013 (Fig.33, 34, 35), the sudden ‘warming’ of the Baltic during the last two weeks, while the North Sea remained well below average, should be possible to explain. A significant contribution may come from human activities. First shipping, fishing, off-shore platforms and wind farms, have increased the release of heat stored during the summer season. Now, although the sun is more and more heating up the sea surface again, anthropogenic mixing between several sea levels shovels colder water to the sea surface, which remains colder, and below average, as if nature would do it alone. That science is ignoring this aspect, and the corresponding impact on the weather (see the snow in the UK ), is unacceptable.  

Box 11

15. May 2013

THE TELEGRAPH / UK British summer kicks off with snow flurries It may be approaching summer but residents of Devon and Shropshire woke up to snow this morning as winter weather returned. [by Louise Gray] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10058672/British-summer-kicks-off-with-snow-flurries.html

Box 12

15. May 2013 Update: 16/05

MAILONLINE / UK It's the middle of May! Two inches of snow, one month's rainfall in a day and 65mph winds hit Britain [by Andy Dolan]   ·          Up to 2in snow reported in Princetown, Devon , and Rhayader, Powys   ·          And 3in snow fell on high ground in Shropshire near Welsh border   ·          Month's rain in 24 hours to 7am today in Pembrey, Carmarthenshire  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324803/UK-weather-Its-middle-May-Two-inches-snow-months-rainfall-day-65mph-winds-hit-Britain.html

 

Fig. 33	Fig. 34	Fig. 35

 →→top

SST in German Bight in Spring (End of April & early May)  Annual SST at EMS-Station in 2010, see Figure 21
Fig. 36, in April 2011	Fig. 37, in April 2013	Fig. 38, in May 2013

→→top

2nd Addendum: Extraordinary Baltic SST warming
 within few days.
20. May 2013  

Since the 1^st of May the Baltic experienced a dramatic increase of SST, while the North Sea remained below average (Fig. 29-32, 39, and 40). Within less than three weeks the different seas water temperatures between the two sea areas are of a magnitude that climatologist should be able to explain.

 The air temperatures (Fig.  ) are presumably not the only source to generate a more than +4°C deviation from average in the Baltic, respectively a difference of about 6°C toward the North Sea in such a short time. The sub-low SST in the North Sea (and across the N-Atlantic, Fig. 41) is one reason for the current wet conditions in the UK (see Box 13 ), which will continue in the forthcoming week see Box 14.

Box 13

 The latest Baltic sea-ice conditions are shown in Fig. 45-47.

BOX 14

  →→top

3rd. Addendum: Stupid not to know why the North Sea
 is still so cold during May!
Posted: 28 /29 /30 May 2013  

Around the North Sea May 2013 will be one of the coldest since long. Since early March 2013 the North Sea is significant below average (HERE), contributing to the extreme cold March, and the low temperatures during the subsequent months April and May. While the SST in the Baltic increased substantially above average about three weeks ago the North Sea SST remained below(see Fig. 29-32 above). No wonder that the area around the North Sea is still cold be the end of May (Box 15 & 16 below)

 If we would be able to explain why the SST in the North Sea is suddenly so much different from the SST in the Baltic, we would also know which percentage is correlated to human activities. Tides, wind, and man are the only external means to replace surface water with colder water from lower levels. Shipping, fishing, off-shore platforms and wind-farms contribute to keep the surface-level (SST) colder than it would be, when tide and wind would be the sole actors. This is presumably evident if one compares the situation in the North Sea with the SST developments in the Baltic through May (see Fig. above)). An interesting satellite –image from 22. May and today shows that both seas may have got the same amount of sun – at least indicated in this cases, and that the North Sea acts a barrier (Fig. 50, 51). 
There are many questions climatology should be able to answer. But it seems they are not interest!  Is that good science?

  Box 15 ; THE NETHERLANS

 Box: 16 ; UNITED KINGDOM

   →→top

 Box 17:

 The role of the North Atlantic and North Sea during May 2013 is evident, see Fig. 25, Fig. 28 and Figure 52.

    →→top

Box: 18

 →→top

Box 19

  →→top

 BOX 20

→→top

Related Material and Discussion at :
23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!

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