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Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May.
The Atlantic & North Sea factor.  
: 2. May 2013 (co_8-4)

1st Addendum: Mid May 2013 – Cold North Sea /Snow in UK →→
2nd Addendum: Extraordinary Baltic SST warming within few days.   →GO→
3rd. Addendum: Failure not to know why the North Sea  is still 
so cold during May! 
4th Add: NATIONAL NEWS / UK ; “Spring 'the coldest for 50 years' “ 
Box 18

5th Add: UK Weather Report–Spring 2013 →→GO→→  Box 20

This paper is a round-up of the winter 2012/13 that received as early as December 2012 high attention, due to an unusual cold-spell around the 20th December and sea ice in the NE Baltic; HERE. The winter highlight came with March 2013, in some areas or location the coldest for many decades, or up to 200 years, which was thoroughly by us, for example HERE, HERE & HERE, with the attention to raise the awareness of the role the North- and Baltic Sea may have played in the wintry spring.

As sea water condition remained sub-cold throughout April 2013 in the North Sea and SW Baltic, the climatic condition shall be documented by reference to official reports and temperature maps. As per today (2nd May) we are aware only of a April 2013 analysis by the ‘Deutscher Wetterdienst ‘ DWD  dated 29/04/13 ( HERE. excerpts):  

                                                 April 2013 Weather Analysis         

__Germany began the month of April with winter-like conditions, but the weather managed to warm up by mid month and ended up being just about normal, temperature-wise.
__For precipitation, it was drier than normal in Germany - for the 5th April in a row. The amount of sunshine was also slightly below average, according to the DWD. The results are based on measurements taken from 2000 surface stations across the country.
__The DWD reports that the mean temperature for April was 8.2° Celsius, which is 0.8°C warmer than the relatively cool international reference period of 1961 – 1990, but 0.1°C cooler than the 1981 to 2010 period. And because March was far below normal, the 2013 MAM spring period so far is much cooler than normal.
(Selection/Translation Pierre Gosselin /30.April 2013 at: *)

DWD reckons that Schleswig-Holstein –SH- (between Hamburg and Denmark ) was the coldest country in Germany in April 2013, and names as reason arctic air from the East. That ignores the fact that the North Sea and western Baltic Sea had been sub cold since early March 2013, different from the NE Baltic, which may have contributed to low temperature in SH and The Netherlands more than cold air from elsewhere.
For SST below average since early March 2013, see the following maps:
__15. March
__31. March
__24. April
Discussed here:
“ Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored!”
___, and
____ on “’Urgent’ need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea !“


April 2013 – Material

  BOX 1 :        Global temperature anomalies from December 2012 to March 2013 (vs 1980-2010)

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

BOX 2 :

Development of sea water temperature over a depth of 30 meter during spring,

at the station EMS in the German Bight from 09.March to 30.April 2013.

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Fig. 10

BOX 3 :

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in North- and Baltic Sea in March/April 2013


Fig. 11

Fig. 12

Fig. 13


BOX 4 :

Sea Ice during April 2013 – Which was always less than average!

Fig. 14

Fig. 15

Fig. 16

Fig. 17

Fig. 18

Fig. 19

Fig. 20

BOX 5 :

Sea surface T°C developments in Mar/Apr.
at two German off-shore stations (North Sea & Baltic);

See also :  Figure 7- 10 above

For further images go to : Four Swedish stations:

Fig. 21

Fig. 22


BOX 6 : →→top

Anomalies - Air Temperature in Europe (April 2013) and SST (1st May 2013) across the Atlantic .


Fig. 23

Fig. 24

Fig. 25

Fig. 26

Fig. 27


             May 2013 Weather Forecast      

BOX 7 :  →→top

May Forecast

Leon Brown, Chief Meteorologist Published: Apr 19, 2013,

Fig. 28: Early May

Fig. 29: Mid May

LINK & Original image at :



Hopefully some beautiful blossom displays to come this May with a dry and settled spell for mid month, but no sign of any great warmth. ( Leon Brown/
__After the cold start to April temperatures have gradually lifted with a few warm days to kick start spring, but temperatures are still a degree or so below the long term normal for April in the UK . Some warmer days in the south at first but it looks like April will end rather cool and wintry again, so the month as a whole will remain colder than normal, but nowhere near as extreme as March. The CET is likely end up somewhere between -0.5 to -1.0C.
__So how about May and the summer?
It looks like the cold end to April will extend to the start of May with a cold trough over western Europe and a southward kink in the jet stream over the NE Atlantic . Low pressure from Iberia to the UK and eastern Atlantic with some quite wet weather for Iberia . In the UK night frosts will be a risk. The warmest weather over eastern Europe, and also drier weather too.
__From early to mid May it looks like a ridge will begin to build over central to northern Europe with the jet stream weaker and displaced well to the north. High pressure may well dominate the weather with the centre from southern Scandinavia to the North Sea . This will bring us drier and settled weather, and probably quite sunny weather too. Temperatures lifting but still slightly below normal, especially around coasts with breezes off the chilly North Sea which remains 2 to 3C below normal. With clearer skies we may also see cold nights and ground frosts, but pleasant by day in the sunshine. In Europe temperatures lifting to nearer or above normal across Germany and eastwards, but low pressure to the west of Iberia may keep Spain and Portugal rather unsettled and cooler than normal.
__For the end of May we expect the jet stream to return southwards again to bring unsettled weather back to NW Europe from the Atlantic, while the ridge and surface high pressure moves east with eastern Europe warmer and drier. This may then set the theme for the summer with cooler and wetter weather in June and July for NW Europe and hotter and drier weather over SE Europe ; very similar to the past 6 summers in fact. All this in response to the lack of sea ice over the Arctic from May which displaces and enhances the jet stream over the mid Atlantic to NW Europe.
(Emphasis added)

BOX 8→→top

BLOOMBERG NEWS / 30.April.2013/  (Excerpt)

Europe to Be Cooler Than Usual for Third Month: Forecasters

__Most of Europe will be cooler than normal for a third month in May while the Nordic region will be warmer than average, according to weather forecasters.

__Below-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic will probably limit any temperature increases in central Europe and the U.K. , Bradley Harvey, an operational meteorologist at MDA Information Systems LLC, said by e-mail. Meteorologists at Deutscher Wetterdienst, WSI Corp., Meteogroup U.K. Ltd. and MetraWeather also forecast below-normal temperatures.

___“There is a signal for higher-than-average pressure to persist close to the U.K. or close to northwest Europe ,” Matt Hugo, a forecaster at MetraWeather, said by e-mail. “This may lead to a cool north or northwesterly air mass becoming established across central and northern areas of Europe around the middle of May.” ………………

___In Germany , the average temperature will be 11.9 degrees through May 14, the data show. The seasonal norm, based on records from 1981 to 2010, is about 13 degrees Celsius, Christian Herold, a meteorologist at DWD, said by telephone from Offenbach , Germany .


BOX 9; see Figure 25 for reference   →→top

Reported on aturday, 04 May 2013: Record cold May in Iceland - 17.6 below zero

36 year old record cold for May in Iceland has been broken. In Grímsstaðir á Fjöllum the temperature was measured 17.6°C below zero (0.32°F) a couple of days ago. The old record was -17.4°C in Möðrudalur á Fjöllum. The Icelandic Meteorological Office predicts continuing cold, especially in the north of Iceland .


BOX 7: 

Box 8:


1st Addendum: Mid May 2013 – Cold North Sea /Snow in UK  
16. May 2013

  North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are below average (Fig. 28) for several months. North Sea water temperatures are below average since early March 2013, HERE & HERE, and Fig.11-13 above. They remained low during the first half of May 2013, while SST (anomalies) increased suddenly in the Baltic; see Fig. 29, 30, 31 & 32.

Left: Fig. 28

Now by mid May the was snow fall in central England (see the following boxes).  Most likely the sub-cold sea around Great Britain contributed to the snow event, which may only occur once in several decades.   

Fig. 29; 1.May 2013

Fig. 30; 5.May 2013

Fig. 31; 10 May 2013

Fig. 32; 15 May 2013


What surprises is the enormous SST anomaly between the North Sea and Baltic.

Although the Baltic deviated much less from SST average during the last few months, with lower than average sea ice conditions, including in mid May 2013 (Fig.33, 34, 35), the sudden ‘warming’ of the Baltic during the last two weeks, while the North Sea remained well below average, should be possible to explain. A significant contribution may come from human activities. First shipping, fishing, off-shore platforms and wind farms, have increased the release of heat stored during the summer season. Now, although the sun is more and more heating up the sea surface again, anthropogenic mixing between several sea levels shovels colder water to the sea surface, which remains colder, and below average, as if nature would do it alone. That science is ignoring this aspect, and the corresponding impact on the weather (see the snow in the UK ), is unacceptable.  

Box 11

15. May 2013



British summer kicks off with snow flurries

It may be approaching summer but residents of Devon and Shropshire woke up to snow this morning as winter weather returned. [by Louise Gray]

Box 12


May 2013

Update: 16/05

It's the middle of May! Two inches of snow, one month's rainfall in a day and 65mph winds hit Britain [by Andy Dolan]  
Up to 2in snow reported in Princetown, Devon , and Rhayader, Powys  
And 3in snow fell on high ground in Shropshire near Welsh border  
Month's rain in 24 hours to 7am today in Pembrey, Carmarthenshire


Fig. 33

Fig. 34

Fig. 35


SST in German Bight in Spring (End of April & early May) 
Annual SST at EMS-Station in 2010,
see Figure 21


Fig. 36, in April 2011

Fig. 37, in April 2013

Fig. 38, in May 2013


2nd Addendum: Extraordinary Baltic SST warming
 within few days.

20. May 2013  

Since the 1st of May the Baltic experienced a dramatic increase of SST, while the North Sea remained below average (Fig. 29-32, 39, and 40). Within less than three weeks the different seas water temperatures between the two sea areas are of a magnitude that climatologist should be able to explain.

Fig. 39, 17. May 2013

Fig. 40, 20. May 2013

Fig. 41, 20.May 2013

 The air temperatures (Fig.  ) are presumably not the only source to generate a more than +4°C deviation from average in the Baltic, respectively a difference of about 6°C toward the North Sea in such a short time. The sub-low SST in the North Sea (and across the N-Atlantic, Fig. 41) is one reason for the current wet conditions in the UK (see Box 13 ), which will continue in the forthcoming week see Box 14.

Fig. 42, 2.-9.May 2013

Fig. 43, 10.-18.May 2013

Fig. 44, 18.-25. May 2013

Box 13

Great Britain - 19 May 2013 – The Telegraph / UK

Britain braced for thunderstorms and hail showers

Britain ’s dismal Spring weather is expected to continue this week as forecasters warned some parts of the country will see torrential rain, thunderstorms and hail stones the size of marbles.

 The latest Baltic sea-ice conditions are shown in Fig. 45-47.

Fig. 45, 20. May 2013

Fig. 46, 20. May 2013

Fig. 47, Average 21.May

BOX 14

UK Weather Forecast: 21-28 May 2013;
Cold Temperatures And Rain on Spring Bank Holiday (27/05)
20. May 13:   

An Arctic plunge is on the way from mid-week, meteorologists from the Weather Channel said. "Thursday and Friday will feel more like March again in northerly winds and showers, temperatures struggling to reach 10C in many areas of the UK and snow in the showers over the Pennines and Highlands in Scotland . Wind chill temperatures make more like 5C," said forecaster Leon Brown.


3rd. Addendum: Stupid not to know why the North Sea
is still so cold during May!

Posted: 28
/29 /30 May 2013  

Around the North Sea May 2013 will be one of the coldest since long. Since early March 2013 the North Sea is significant below average (HERE), contributing to the extreme cold March, and the low temperatures during the subsequent months April and May. While the SST in the Baltic increased substantially above average about three weeks ago the North Sea SST remained below(see Fig. 29-32 above). No wonder that the area around the North Sea is still cold be the end of May (Box 15 & 16 below)

Fig. 48; SST-Anomalies 24. May 2013

Fig. 49; SST-Anomalies 28. May 2013

 If we would be able to explain why the SST in the North Sea is suddenly so much different from the SST in the Baltic, we would also know which percentage is correlated to human activities. Tides, wind, and man are the only external means to replace surface water with colder water from lower levels. Shipping, fishing, off-shore platforms and wind-farms contribute to keep the surface-level (SST) colder than it would be, when tide and wind would be the sole actors. This is presumably evident if one compares the situation in the North Sea with the SST developments in the Baltic through May (see Fig. above)). An interesting satellite –image from 22. May and today shows that both seas may have got the same amount of sun – at least indicated in this cases, and that the North Sea acts a barrier (Fig. 50, 51). 
There are many questions climatology should be able to answer. But it seems they are not interest!  Is that good science?

  Box 15 ; THE NETHERLANS   -  Friday 24 May 2013
Frost and record low temperatures at the end of May;
There was ground frost in eastern parts of the country overnight, with the temperature dipping to as low as -2.8° Celsius in Gelderland , according to RTL weather forecaster Amara Onwuka.

The previous record low for May 24 was -0.6° Celsius nine years ago, Onwuka said.

The cold weather, which has led to temperatures no warmer than 10 Celsius in places during the day, will continue in to the weekend. 
On Friday, cold weather records are likely to be broken again, as the temperature hovers between 8 and 11° Celsius. The coldest May 24 on record was 10.4 and dates from 1975.

The temperature at the end of May usually averages around 18° Celsius.



The Weather Channel - UK Outlook - 27th May 2013,
Dr. Claire M. Kennedy, Meteorologist Published: May 27, 2013, 1:29 PM EDT

Cool and unsettled, briefly warmer by the end of the week.

There has been unusual weather over the last 3 days across C and SE UK with 3 days in a row of sunshine and warm temperatures!. Highs up to 20C by day have been offset by some cool nights. Overnight temps down to 1-3C in places Monday morning......

The rest of the week remains fairly unsettled and cool for the time of year, especially in the E and SE. Best of the drier brighter conditions to the W and NW…..


Fig. 50, 22. May 2013, 13h 
Example: Not representative for May.

Fig. 51, 28. May 2013, 13h 
Example: Not representative for May.


 Box 17:

A year without a summer?Posted on by Verity Jones.

EXTRACT: After a long, cold winter, France is experiencing its coolest spring for 20 years. There was sleet at low level in Southern Belgium last week, and the seasonal forecast for summer provides little optimism.  

THE LOCAL FRENCH NEWS IN ENGLISH: “French ski station to re-open slopes, in June!” 
Published: 29 May 2013
A combination of a icy winter and a chilly spring has meant that for the first time ever in the month of June, skiers will have the option of heading to the pistes in the French Pyrénées, French TV TF1 reported on Wednesday (29/May2013).
After recent cold weather, bosses at the ski station Porte Puymorens in the Pyrenees-Orientales region of the mountain range that divides France from Spain have taken the exceptional step to reopen the slopes this weekend after they had closed them at the end of the season in April.  ……
Spring in France , which forecasters say has been the coldest in 25 years in some parts of the country, has meant the snow, which would normally have melted away by this time of year, is still in abundance.

 The role of the North Atlantic and North Sea during May 2013 is evident, see Fig. 25, Fig. 28 and Figure 52.



Fig. 52  

see also
Fig. 53


Box: 18

NATIONAL NEWS / UK ; “Spring 'the coldest for 50 years' “

The UK is on track for its coldest spring for more than 50 years following another fortnight of below average temperatures, according to provisional figures from the Met Office.
The average temperature for the three spring months of March, April and May is 6C (43F), making it the fifth coldest spring in records dating back for more than a century to 1910, and the chilliest since 1962.  MORE:   


Fig.53: Note the extreme low SST annomaly in Atlantic-Golf-region 
& West-Europe

Figure 53; SST-Anomalies/29.May 2013; Source:


Box 19

THE INDEPENDENT: “ UK sees coldest spring in 50 years, says Met Office”
30 May 2013;

____Tomorrow calls time on the coldest spring in more than 50 years, as the past fortnight of below average temperatures dragged the average thermometer reading during March, April and May putting it on course for its lowest level since 1962.
____Apart from being a bit of a pain generally, the prolonged bout of unseasonably-cold weather has caused severe problems for farmers, prompting a surge in the number of livestock deaths and damaging vast areas of crops.
____The average temperature over the period came in at 6.0C, which is 1.8C, or nearly 25 per cent, lower than is typical for the time of year, according to the Met Office.
This makes it the fifth coldest spring since records began in 1910 and the chilliest for 51 years.  ……..

____Rainfall was lower than normal in March and April but May has been wetter than usual, the Met Office added. As a result, spring has been slightly drier than average, but not as dry as the springs of 2010 and 2011.
____The Met Office data runs up to the end of March 28, meaning that it does not take into account the final three days of spring.


 BOX 20

UK Weather Report–Spring 2013

June 23, 2013,  By Paul Homewood (Extract)

2013_13_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010 The full details have now been released by the Met Office for May, so we can take a look at the Spring summary.


Although, on the basis of CET, it was the coldest Spring in England since 1891, for the UK as a whole it was not quite so cold! Mean temperatures averaged out at 5.99C. Records for the UK start in 1910, and since then the coldest Spring was in 1962, which registered 5.80C. Three other Springs, in 1917, 1941 and 1951 were also slightly colder than this year.

As the map below shows, Scotland , though still colder than usual, was not as far below average as England and, particularly, Wales . ….cont

COMMENT: Two of the four coldest springs occurred during the World Wars:
____1917 at a time the Kriegsmarine sunk about ten Allies ships per day;
____1941 within 12 Months during which Germany occupied Norway , Benelux and France .


Related Material and Discussion at :
23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)


The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!

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