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A Scientific Assessment

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After a moderate March
 now a cold April?

Add.3 to Offshore Wind-parks and mild Winters. Contribution from Ships, Fishery, Windparks etc.
Online – HERE  ; Home: 
Posted: 04. April 2015

An Up-Date in May/June/July & 07 August 2015
below - starting with Figure 26



The German weather service (DWD) issued its winter 2014/15 summary as early as 27. February 2015, stating that it was “Very mild with balanced precipitation and slightly too little sun” (full English text in PDF – HERE).
left - Air & SST on 5th March 2015 ; Fig. 1 & 2.

Concerning February 2015 the DWD published its resume also on 27/02 (in
Engl.-html - HERE) of which the following excerpts are taken:

Cold, wintry weather in some areas of the south, otherwise slightly too mild.
At 0.6 degrees Celsius (C), the average temperature in Germany in February was only 0.2 degrees higher than normal according to the international reference period of 1961–1990. However, compared to the reference period 1981–2010 the deviation was 0.4 degrees. Southern Germany experienced cold, wintry weather in February, especially above around 400 metres.  …. With approximately 85 hours of sunshine, the normal figure of 73 hours was exceeded by 17 per cent. Most sunshine was recorded along the northern edge of the Alps and in the Ore Mountains with nearly 130 hours. Schleswig-Holstein received least
sunshine, with some areas only seeing 50 hours.

Air and SST in Europe in March and early April 2015 (Fig. 1-6)





Fig. 3

Fig 4

Fig 5

Fig 6

 The next assessment titled „"Above average warm and sunny with stormy finale" followed in late March (only in German: PDF HIER ). According DWD average temperature had been,  5,2 degree Celsius und 1,7 warmer than the reference period 1961-1990 (and versus 1981-2010, plus 0,9C).

Water temperature in the German Bight and Baltic Sea recovered early;
the station “German Bight” already on about 4th March.  (Fig. 7-14)





Fig.7 Fig.8 Fig.9 Fig.10

The British MetOff’s  March-Report (issued  31.03. 2015 – HERE )- says: March continues sunny theme for UK continuing:  Following the sunniest winter in records dating back to 1929, March has continued the trend with above average sunshine hours according to early Met Office statistics…. When it comes to temperatures – the month has been spot-on average up to the 29th, with a mean temperature of 5.5C. Looking closer at individual countries, England, Wales and Northern Ireland were all slightly colder than average (by no more than a few tenths of a degree), while Scotland again bucked the trend with slightly above average temperatures (by 0.3C). Overall the month has been fairly average so far, with no records broken. The final figures are likely to change slightly once the final two days of the month are added.”  





Fig. 11; German Bight ; Water-TC - Profile, 3 month
Fig. 12; Arkona Basin;
Water TC -Profile  - Year-

Fig.13; Arkona Basin; Water- TC -Profile - 3 momth
Fig.14; Arkona Basin; Salinity- 3 momth - 2015
Fig 15; Average sea ice, 1.Apr

Fig. 16_ Sea ice,
1 Apr.2015






Fig. 17, SST - 25-31 March 2015
Fig. 18 ,  SST - 25-31 March 2015
Fig. 19, Golbal SST 01 April 2015
Fig.20, Snow cover - 01 April 2015


The current outlook indicate a colder than average April in West-Europe (Fig. 21-23) Spring is the time during which activities at sea shovel cold water to the sea surface, and sun-warmed water downwards. It may be only a small and short term contribution to air temperature, but it is time to know it thoroughly.


Fig. 21.  Temp-forecast  April 2015

Fig.22, Global forecast April 2015

Fig.23, Europe  TC  forecast

April 2015

ADD_ Fig. 24,  Nort Atlantic wind pattern,  13. April 2015

ADD_Fig.25;  MetOff  forecast, 13. April 2015

DWD_PDF-Winter 2014/15

DWD_html-February 2015 :

MetOff.  “March continues sunny theme for UK”  (31/03/15)


An Up-Date in mid-May 2015 & End-May (Fig. 38f)
posted 15 May 2015

Sea ice was low in the Northern Hemisphere. A minimum was reached in the Arctic already on 25th February 2015 (HERE & HERE), remained throughout the season far below average. “This year marks a historically poor ice-winter, reports Swedish Radio” (13. March 2015 - HERE):
left: Fig. 26
___Ice covered at most, approximately 45,000 square kilometers of the Gulf of Bothnia, almost ten times less than the winter of 1986-87.
___The reason for this record-low is the fact that temperatures in all areas of the Baltic Sea have been above, or far above what is considered to be normal.
__“There will not be any net-growth of ocean-ice in any area during the current season”, says Amund E B Lindberg, oceanographer and ocean-ice expert at SMHI’s ice-department.




Fig. 27 - Average 11 April

Fig. 28 -  Sea ice extent 13. April  2015

Fig. 29 - Average 11 May

UK - Sunny and dry - April 2015
By:MetOffice 30. April 2015 – Extract -  Full Text - HERE

The early April figures (1st – 28th April) show it was a sunny and warm month over all, with well above average sunshine almost everywhere. At the moment it ranks as the fifth sunniest April across the UK as a whole. Some locations, particularly in the East of the country, have so far seen almost 50% more sunshine than average.  East Scotland has had its sunniest April on record,

Germany – Warm and very Dry - April 2015
(By Deutscher Wetterdienst, 29. April 2015); Only Extract (Full text – HERE)

__Warm and very dry, with lots of sun instead of April weather (The generally high air pressure brought warm, very dry and unusually sunny weather.)
__Often still cold at night, but already relatively warm during the day.
Fourth sunniest April since measurements first began in 1951.





Fig. 30 -  Forecast  TC, 01-09 May 2015

Fig. 31 - SST Anomaly  01 May 2015

Fig. 32  - Forecast  TC, 14-22 May 2015

Fig. 33 - SST  Anomaly  13 May 2015

Fig. 34 - SST  Anomaly  16 March 2015 Fig. 35 - SST  Anomaly  15 April  2015 Fig. 36 - SST  Anomaly  13 May 2015


wet start to May 2015  (Met Office UK)

It has been a wet start to May with the UK already having seen more than its normal full-month rainfall after just 17 days.
Early Met Office figures up to the 17th of the month show the UK has had 74.1mm of rain – which is just over the full-month May average of 70.0mm. ….. /cont:
It has also been colder than average so far with a UK mean temperature of 9.2C, which is 1.2C below the full-month average.
As May is a transition month to warmer weather, you’d normally expect the first half of the month to be slightly below the full-month average – but even so, it has been cooler than normal.
Sunshine has been very close to average so far.
  //19 05 2015//




 UK Met Office on 19 MNay 2015

Fig. 37: Temperature forecasts 20-28 May  

Fig. 38: STT Anomalies
31 May 2015

Fig. 39, TC foercast
01-09 June 2015

SUMMARY per mid-May 2015 (fig. 30 - 37):
While April 2015 stayed in line with a mild winter in West-Europe, the May appears to turn to
lower than average temperatures, even though sea surface temperature in North Sea and Baltic stay at level close, or even above, the average.
It remains to be noted that an El Nino event commenced in April 2015.Summary per End of May 2015.

Summary per end of May 2015 (Fig. 38-42): May too cold and wet


Figure 40

Figure 41

Figure 42

Cold continue in June + July + August
posted 16. June 2015 & 07 July 2015





Fig. 43

Fig. 44  UK-TC  01-15 June

Fig.  45  _Sea Surface Temperature

Fig.  46  TC Temperature  Anomaly Forecast




Fig.  47

 Fig. 48 - Europe Temperature Anomaly June 2015

 Fig. 49 - Sea surface temperture anomaly

 Fig. 50. Northern Europe remains cold up to end of July 2015 - Forecast fpr last week of July





Fig. 51  - UK is cold, wet and dull in July 2015 

Fig. 52  - Surprising temperature trend in July 2015
at Kungsholsfort South Sweden 

Fig. 53: - Remarkable temperture difference over a
water depths of about 45 m at ARKONA in July 2015 



Back to English Text


   Concerning the Arctic

14. February 2014
North Atlantic sea ice in summer 1917; contributing to the biggest climatic 
shift last century?
And what caused this extraordinary event?

more posts below List of lectures

Eight lectures 

Lecture 1: Click on image for PDF
Three Extreme Winter 1939/40, 1940/41 & 1941/42 Man Made
Due to Naval Warfare

Lecture 2: Click on image for PDF
Only four months needed for a man made extreme winter 1939/40?
The naval war share – A proof in three steps!

Click on image for PDF
Cold Pole over Skagerrak  
Winter 1940/41.
Occupation of Norway contribute 
to extreme winter.

Click on image for PDF
Worst weather forecast ever finished Blitzkrieg on 5th December 1941!
How Hitler shot himself in the foot! Failure of meteorology - a boon to mankind!

Click on image for PDF
3rd Extreme War Winter 1941/42 was predictable! Naval war caused weather that stopped Wehrmacht to reach Moscow !

Click on image for PDF

Two World Wars! Two Climate Changes!
The Role of Naval Warfare!

Click on image for PDF

Did Naval War in the Pacific 
contribute to climate change?
PDO shift 1943/46 & Japan ’s record temperatures 1945. 

Click on image for PDF
Arctic Warming 1919-1939. Did Four Years Naval war Started it?

Read the new Book Publication - 2012: 

"Failures of Meteorology? Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars?"
Details below.

Older posts

17.Juni 2013;
 D-Day in June 1944 followed by worst summer storm,
which meteorology did not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!  (co_7-4)

14. May: 

Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. May 2013 (ocl_7-9)

02.May 2013: Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May. The Atlantic & North Sea factor. (co_8-4)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 

03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 

29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  

27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)

26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 

21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 

20 March 13: Mark Maslin and Patrick Austin on: “Uncertainty: Climate models at their limit?” Do they understand too little from climate to discuss the matter sufficiently? (co-10-3)

1. Feb.13: Hamburger cold record on 13 January 1940  has an anthropogenic cause!  (co-11-9 )

19 January 2013: Northern Europe 's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. January 2013 (co-12-8)

14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. --left-- (COL-12-6)

07. Jan. 2013: Record cold in Poland ! Minus 41C on 11th Jan.1940 in Siedlce! (OCL-12-7)

23. Dec. 2012 + Update 17/01:  Had the Battle of Stalingrad been hampered by unusual low temperatures in December 1942? (OCL-12-8 


Terms & Conditions



Main Sites on Climate Change during World Wars
Book 2012:
Arctic Warming 1919 – A World War I Issue
Books 2005/06
Book 2005:
Ditto (short version):
 Booklet 2006:
Booklet in Russian 2006:

Reference SEA-LAW (UNCLOS) links : , ,
Material in German

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