and mild Winters.
1. Add. US weather conditions on 17th February
The effect of stirring
The actual winter 2014/15 is up to now no winter
in Northern Europa (Fig. 1-2). Can
anthropogene activities in the North Sea, Baltic and coastal seas be made
partly responsible? Presumably yes! Stirring hot coffee will cool it down. At
the end of August the sea areas have gained their maximum potential of warmth. Many
ship propellers are plowing through the sea stirring the surface layer to a
depth of 15 meters. In the North Sea and Baltic there are continuously up to ten
thousand large motor ships at sea. Several thousand offshore facilities on the
bottom of the sea or anchored offshore rigs divert currents at sea and influence
tides and currents as a permanent resistance against the normal flow of huge
amounts of ocean water. (Fig. 3-8)
The result is like stirring hot soup. Warm water will come to the surface and
the heat will supply the atmosphere with warmth. The air will become warmer and
the winters will be milder. The correlation is not to be overseen. It is not
relevant to climate research or agencies allowing offshore structures who do
not consider such evaluations.
The situation at the beginning of the evaluation
is obvious. In Europe the mean average temperature during the last century has
risen by 0.9°C. In the last 30 years the tendency of warming per decade with
about 0.41°C was significantly higher than the global mean of +0.17°C. Warming
in central and northern Europe was very strong and winter temperatures rose
faster than summer temperatures (Ref: BACC), (Ref.).
„….the temperature in the Baltic area increased by one tenth of a degree, more than the global average …. The warming of the air in the northern Baltic area by 1°C was higher than in the southern region with 0.7°C.“
The Helsinki Commission (HELCM) confirmed in 2014 that
“On average since the late 19th century the increase in annual average surface air temperature has been 0.11˚C per decade in the northern Baltic and 0.08˚C in the southern Baltic compared to the global average of 0.05˚C per decade.”
The difference between North and South can be explained by the fact that the southern Baltic is shallower than the eastern Baltic. That means there is less volume of water available for storing heat (summer) and releasing it (winter). (Fig. 9-13) The over proportional warming of water and air is self-evident. To link this to ‚global warming‘ cannot be convincing. How can ‚global warming‘ lead to specific higher warming in these regional seas? Rather, it should be asked; have shipping and offshore activities contributed to global warming?
More heat input – More heat output.
An example for the importance of the available water volume is shown in the Baltic. The increase of mean water temperature near Gotland since 1993 was almost 6°C and around Bornholm it was about 8°C (Ref.). The mean water depth of the Baltic is 52m (Nord Sea 94m) and is less in the south than in the eastern Baltic. The explanation of this significant difference of 2°C can be a different amount of ship traffic. According to HELCOM a permanent number of 2000 large (sizable) ships sail the Baltic at any time. This implies that this armada agitates the surface layer down to 10m depth and deeper in the entire Baltic within two weeks. In the southern Baltic more because of higher ships traffic thus explaining the greater rise in temperature. That this aspect plays an important role can be explained by the fact that comparable values in both regions, Gotland and Bornholm, were only around 4°C.
Since mankind, during the course of a year, agitates
the water column of North Sea and Baltic by stirring, more warmth is taken to
deeper water in the summer season and rises to the surface from lower layers in
the winter period, where heat is exchanged with the air until sea icing is
observed. This is a process that can be seen from the beginning of September until
the end of March.
Europe is not the world. However Western Europe is
under the influence of the weather belt from West to East. Atlantic low
pressure areas move east (Fig.17), unless cold continental high pressure air blocks
them. These are the winters that Europe talks about. This succeeds very well
when the North Sea and Baltic do not assist the Atlantic weather because they
cannot release enough heat or are hindered by sea icing. In this winter they
are perfect helpers and keep the cold from Siberia at a safe distance. (Fig.
The facts are conclusive. “Global Climate Change” cannot cause a special rise in temperatures in Northern Europe, neither in the North Sea nor the Baltic or beyond. Any use of the oceans by mankind has an influence on thermo-haline structures within the water column from a few cm to 10m and more. Noticeably warmer winders in Europe are the logical consequence.
Author: Dr. Arnd Bernaerts, Hamburg, February 2015
Siberian Express Gripped Midwest, Northeast, South; Four ...
Hundreds of daily record lows and at least three all-time record lows were set as a frigid air mass with a connection to Siberia gripped the central and eastern United States with dangerously cold conditions. Friday morning brought the most widespread and intense cold of the winter to many areas, sending temperatures into the 30s below zero as far south as Kentucky.
more posts below List of lectures
2013; D-Day in June 1944 followed by
worst summer storm, which
meteorology did not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!
23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
March 2013; Cold
March 2013 in
January 2013: North-
and Baltic Sea influence
Dec. 2012 + Update 17/01: Had
December 15, 2012: The
impact of shipping on ocean and global warming
2012 (+ updates): Are
we heading to severe
on Climate Change during World Wars
Book 2012: http://www.seaclimate.com/
Arctic Warming 1919 – A World War I Issue
Book 2005: http://climate-ocean.com/book%202012/index.html
Ditto (short version): http://www.warchangesclimate.com
Booklet 2006: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/
Reference SEA-LAW (UNCLOS) links :
Material in German
Book: http://www.seatraining.de/ Home: http://www.ozeanklima.de/
http://www.1ocean-1system.de/ , http://www.seatraining.net ,