Book 2005 
Trafford Publishing - Bloomington, Indiana, USA.
CLIMATE CHANGE & NAVAL WAR
A Scientific Assessment
     ONLINE - HERE


Book 2012
INDEX to book:  www-seaclimate.com

Conference Lecture - Thursday 25th June 2015
"Planning for Climate Change" at London South Bank University

PRESENTATION : HERE

Recent
posts
below


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Text in:       French      German     Polish   Romanian

Offshore Wind-parks and mild Winters.
Contribution from Ships, Fishery, Windparks etc.
Posted 25th February, 2015
by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts

In PDF

1. Add. US weather conditions on 17th February 2015 (below)
2. Add: The status in mid-March 2015 in Europe and elsewhere. HERE 
3. Add: After a moderate March now a cold April?
+
An Up-Date in mid-May  &  end of May  2015
HERE
Conference Lecture - Thursday 25th June 2015 "Planning for Climate Change" at London South Bank University PRESENTATION : HERE

 

The effect of stirring

The actual winter 2014/15 is up to now no winter in Northern Europa (Fig. 1-2). Can anthropogene activities in the North Sea, Baltic and coastal seas be made partly responsible? Presumably yes! Stirring hot coffee will cool it down. At the end of August the sea areas have gained their maximum potential of warmth. Many ship propellers are plowing through the sea stirring the surface layer to a depth of 15 meters. In the North Sea and Baltic there are continuously up to ten thousand large motor ships at sea. Several thousand offshore facilities on the bottom of the sea or anchored offshore rigs divert currents at sea and influence tides and currents as a permanent resistance against the normal flow of huge amounts of ocean water. (Fig. 3-8) The result is like stirring hot soup. Warm water will come to the surface and the heat will supply the atmosphere with warmth. The air will become warmer and the winters will be milder. The correlation is not to be overseen. It is not relevant to climate research or agencies allowing offshore structures who do not consider such evaluations.     

 

 

 

Fig. 1, TC forecast 16-23 Feb. 2015

Fig. 2,  SST-Anomaly  26 Feb.2015

Fig. 3, North Sea  currents

Fig. 4,   North Sea offshore  activities 2009

 

 

 

 

Fig. 5,  Plas offshore wind ernergy 2013

Fig. 6, Wind farm west coast Denmark

Fig. 7, Activity offshore 2008

Fig. 8,  Soon 400 turbines for Dogger Bank


Strong warming during winter season.

The situation at the beginning of the evaluation is obvious. In Europe the mean average temperature during the last century has risen by 0.9C. In the last 30 years the tendency of warming per decade with about 0.41C was significantly higher than the global mean of +0.17C. Warming in central and northern Europe was very strong and winter temperatures rose faster than summer temperatures (Ref: BACC), (Ref.).        
         This is also true for water temperatures in the North Sea which rose faster than in other oceans according to publications from the Alfred Wegner Institute 2012. In the year 2014 the highest annual average of 11.4C was the highest ever measured and was 1.5C higher than a long time mean value as Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency of Germany published in February 2015 („Schiff & Hafen, 2015, P. 56).        
 

 

 

 

 

Fig. 9, North Sea currents

Fig. 10,  SST 11-17 Feb.2015

Fig. 11, TC-Profine  over 43m depth

Fig. 12, Sea ice  Baltic  21Feb.15

Fig. 13, Mean sea ice  on 21.Feb.

 The same is reported about the Baltic. It warmed by around 0.03C per decade stronger than other sea areas. In the course of the 20th century the Baltic warmed by approximately 0.85C (Ref. BACC), (Ref.). This had a direct influence on air temperatures, as DER SPIEGEL reported several years ago

„….the temperature in the Baltic area increased by one tenth of a degree, more than the global average …. The warming of the air in the northern Baltic area by 1C was higher than in the southern region with 0.7C.“

The Helsinki Commission (HELCM) confirmed in 2014 that

On average since the late 19th century the increase in annual average surface air temperature has been 0.11˚C per decade in the northern Baltic and 0.08˚C in the southern Baltic compared to the global average of 0.05˚C per decade.” 

The difference between North and South can be explained by the fact that the southern Baltic is shallower than the eastern Baltic. That means there is less volume of water available for storing heat (summer) and releasing it (winter). (Fig. 9-13) The over proportional warming of water and air is self-evident. To link this to ‚global warming‘ cannot be convincing. How can ‚global warming‘ lead to specific higher warming in these regional seas? Rather, it should be asked; have shipping and offshore activities contributed to global warming?

More heat input – More heat output.

An example for the importance of the available water volume is shown in the Baltic. The increase of mean water temperature near Gotland since 1993 was almost 6C and around Bornholm it was about 8C (Ref.). The mean water depth of the Baltic is 52m (Nord Sea 94m) and is less in the south than in the eastern Baltic. The explanation of this significant difference of 2C can be a different amount of ship traffic. According to HELCOM a permanent number of 2000 large (sizable) ships sail the Baltic at any time. This implies that this armada agitates the surface layer down to 10m depth and deeper in the entire Baltic within two weeks. In the southern Baltic more because of higher ships traffic thus explaining the greater rise in temperature. That this aspect plays an important role can be explained by the fact that comparable values in both regions, Gotland and Bornholm, were only around 4C.

 

 

 

Fig. 14,  TC forecast  21.Feb.-01.March 2015

Fig. 15, TC anomaly  21.Feb-01March 2015

Fig. 16, TC  Russia   22. February 2015

 

Since mankind, during the course of a year, agitates the water column of North Sea and Baltic by stirring, more warmth is taken to deeper water in the summer season and rises to the surface from lower layers in the winter period, where heat is exchanged with the air until sea icing is observed. This is a process that can be seen from the beginning of September until the end of March.       
       This corresponding initial situation is also true in the North Sea. It has about twice the volume and stores a great amount of warm water from the North-Atlantic with much higher salinity as in the Baltic. Therefore sea icing in the North Sea is much less and seldom observed.

 
Small and large weather situation on February 22, 2015, influence in the Chicago area?

Europe is not the world. However Western Europe is under the influence of the weather belt from West to East. Atlantic low pressure areas move east (Fig.17), unless cold continental high pressure air blocks them. These are the winters that Europe talks about. This succeeds very well when the North Sea and Baltic do not assist the Atlantic weather because they cannot release enough heat or are hindered by sea icing. In this winter they are perfect helpers and keep the cold from Siberia at a safe distance. (Fig. 14-16).          
     But the more Atlantic weather governs the situation beyond the Ural the further winter Polar and Siberian Cold will move east. This can be felt in Alaska, Canada and perhaps in the U.S.A. These last days it has been extremely cold and in the coming weeks (02/22 to 03/01) deviations from the mean can be 20C lower (Fig.18-19).     (see "Siberian Express": ADD 1 below)     
    It is possible that the warm North Sea and Baltic waters make a contribution to the extreme cold in the U.S.A. Even a minor contribution should not be underestimated, and the mechanism understood.

 

 

 

Fig. 17, North Atlantic wind map 16 February  2015

Fig. 18, US  cold chill 19. February 2015

Fig. 19,  TC  forecast US 21.Feb-01March  2015

 

Summary:

The facts are conclusive. “Global Climate Change” cannot cause a special rise in temperatures in Northern Europe, neither in the North Sea nor the Baltic or beyond. Any use of the oceans by mankind has an influence on thermo-haline structures within the water column from a few cm to 10m and more. Noticeably warmer winders in Europe are the logical consequence.

In PDF 

Author: Dr. Arnd Bernaerts, Hamburg, February 2015

BACK to TOP


    HOME

Assessment of
Winter 2013/14
&
Winter & Spring 2012/13
HERE


Extract from a Baltic Sea Report 2008
The BACC Author Team
The International BALTEX Secretariat

HERE

2. Add.
The status in mid-March 2015
   in Europe and elsewhere.
HERE

3. Add
After a moderate
March  now a
cold April?

HERE

 

 


ADD. 1 – US weather conditions on 17th February 2015
05. March 2015

Siberian Express Gripped Midwest, Northeast, South; Four ...

www.weather.com/.../arctic-blast-record-lows-midwest-south-northeast


Feb 21, 2015 - Friday morning brought the most widespread and intense cold of the .... of snow overnight as a winter storm hit large areas of the east coast.

Hundreds of daily record lows and at least three all-time record lows were set as a frigid air mass with a connection to Siberia gripped the central and eastern United States with dangerously cold conditions. Friday morning brought the most widespread and intense cold of the winter to many areas, sending temperatures into the 30s below zero as far south as Kentucky.

(http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/arctic-blast-record-lows-midwest-south-northeast)

 

 


 

 

 Fig. 21  What is a
“Siberian Express”?

Fig. 23: February 2015  US monthly monitoring report

Fig.24 NE-Pacific’s
high pressure role

 

 

 

 

http://

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http://


 

 

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Assessment of WINTER 2013/14

Winter and Spring 2012/13


D-Day in June 1944 followed by worst summer storm,
which m
eteorology did not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!
First posted : http://climate-ocean.com/2013/7_4.html , April 2010 
Revised and posted here: 17. June 2013 (co_7-4)
 

Continue reading→→→


Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May.
The Atlantic & North Sea factor. 
Posted: 2. May 2013 (co_8-4):  
Continue reading  →→→  


'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No!
MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea !

Posted: 11. April 2013 (co 9-4)  
Continue reading →→→  

More:
The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!
 Further posts at: Home http://climate-ocean.com/ (see below)
Material on winter 2012/13 and discussion
HERE  






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Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering 6(2016)


Full Text -HERE-


Concerning the Arctic

14. February 2014
North Atlantic sea ice in summer 1917; contributing to the biggest climatic 
shift last century?
And what caused this extraordinary event?

more posts below List of lectures

Eight lectures 


Lecture 1: Click on image for PDF
Three Extreme Winter 1939/40, 1940/41 & 1941/42 Man Made
Due to Naval Warfare

Lecture 2: Click on image for PDF
Only four months needed for a man made extreme winter 1939/40?
The naval war share – A proof in three steps!

 
Click on image for PDF
Cold Pole over Skagerrak  
Winter 1940/41.
Occupation of Norway contribute 
to extreme winter.


Click on image for PDF
Worst weather forecast ever finished Blitzkrieg on 5th December 1941!
How Hitler shot himself in the foot! Failure of meteorology - a boon to mankind!


Click on image for PDF
3rd Extreme War Winter 1941/42 was predictable! Naval war caused weather that stopped Wehrmacht to reach Moscow !


Click on image for PDF

Two World Wars! Two Climate Changes!
The Role of Naval Warfare!

 
Click on image for PDF

Did Naval War in the Pacific 
contribute to climate change?
 
PDO shift 1943/46 & Japan ’s record temperatures 1945. 

 
Click on image for PDF
Arctic Warming 1919-1939. Did Four Years Naval war Started it?


Read the new Book Publication - 2012: 

"Failures of Meteorology? Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars?"   

www.seaclimate.com
Details below.

Older posts

17.Juni 2013;
 D-Day in June 1944 followed by worst summer storm,
which meteorology did not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!  (co_7-4)

14. May: 

Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. May 2013 (ocl_7-9)

02.May 2013: Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May. The Atlantic & North Sea factor. (co_8-4)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 

03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 

29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  

27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)

26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 

21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 

20 March 13: Mark Maslin and Patrick Austin on: “Uncertainty: Climate models at their limit?” Do they understand too little from climate to discuss the matter sufficiently? (co-10-3)

1. Feb.13: Hamburger cold record on 13 January 1940  has an anthropogenic cause!  (co-11-9 )

19 January 2013: Northern Europe 's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. January 2013 (co-12-8)

14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. --left-- (COL-12-6)

07. Jan. 2013: Record cold in Poland ! Minus 41C on 11th Jan.1940 in Siedlce! (OCL-12-7)

23. Dec. 2012 + Update 17/01:  Had the Battle of Stalingrad been hampered by unusual low temperatures in December 1942? (OCL-12-8 


 

Terms & Conditions

            

   

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 Recent posts  

17.Juni 2013; D-Day in June 1944 followed by worst summer storm, which meteorology did not expected, reckon, or is able to explain!  (co_7-4)
14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June - (ocl_7-9)

02 May: Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May. (co_8-4)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 

04 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ?  A not well founded claim! 

29 March 2012: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)   

26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2)

21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3)  

20 March 13:
Mark Maslin and Patrick Austin on: “Uncertainty: Climate models at their limit?” Do they understand too little from climate to discuss the matter sufficiently?

1st Feb.13: Hamburger cold record on 13 January 1940  has an anthropogenic cause!  (co-11-9 )

19 January 2013: Northern Europe 's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. January 2013 (co-12-8)

14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. --left-- (COL-12-6)

07. Jan. 2013: Record cold in Poland ! Minus 41C on 11th Jan.1940 in Siedlce! (OCL-12-7)

23. Dec. 2012 + Update 17/01:  Had the Battle of Stalingrad been hampered by unusual low temperatures in December 1942? (OCL-12-8 

December 15, 2012: The impact of shipping on ocean and global warming (COL-12-9)

Dec. 09. 2012 (+ updates):  Are we heading to severe   Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

December 2012:
Roger Pielke Sr. and Climate Definition - A field of jargon words and misuse of definitions – (whatisclimate)

 

      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Main Sites on Climate Change during World Wars
Book 2012: http://www.seaclimate.com/
Home: http://www.ocean-climate-law.com/
Home: http://www.oceanclimate.de/
Arctic Warming 1919 – A World War I Issue
Books: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/
Home: http://www.arctic-warming.com/
Books 2005/06
Book 2005: http://climate-ocean.com/book%202012/index.html
Ditto (short version): http://www.warchangesclimate.com
 Booklet 2006: http://www.1ocean-1climate.com/
Booklet in Russian 2006: http://www.1okeah-1klimat.com
 
Brief
contributions
http://www.2007seatraining.de/
http://www.whatisclimate.com/


Reference SEA-LAW (UNCLOS) links :
http://www.bernaerts-sealaw.com , http://www.bernaerts-guide.de
http://www.bernaerts-guide-russian.de ,http://www.bernaerts-unclos.de
Material in German

Book: http://www.seatraining.de/
Home:  http://www.ozeanklima.de/
Miscellaneous
http://www.1ocean-1system.de/ , http://www.seatraining.net ,